Es gibt Parallelen zwischen dem aktuellen Umfeld und den 1930er Jahren (geopolitische Spannungen, politische Polarisierung, Handelskonflikte und regionale Kriege). Eine japanische Studie ergab, dass internationale wirtschaftliche und politische Schocks die demokratischen Kontrollen schwächen und Eliten dazu veranlassen können, sich der autoritären Macht anzuschließen.

Examining the impact of sanctioned elites on authoritarian realignment

A researcher investigates how economic elites responded to deterioration of democratic checks and balances in the Japanese legislature (1936–1942)

In recent years, many observers have noted parallels between the current international environment and the 1930s, including rising geopolitical tensions, political polarization, trade conflicts, and regional wars. This raised a broader question: How do changes in the international environment reshape domestic political landscapes? From an academic perspective, much of the existing research on democratic backsliding focuses on voters or on political actors who mobilize and manipulate voters. While these perspectives are important, the incentives and behavior of economic and political elites are often examined less systematically. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how changes in the global economic and political environment influence the choices made by these actors.

Furthermore, economic sanctions and trade restrictions are frequently used as tools of international policy, yet relatively little is known about how such measures affect domestic political coalitions within the targeted or affected countries.

In a new study, Associate Professor Makoto Fukumoto from the Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Japan, aimed to provide a clearer understanding of how international economic pressure can reshape domestic political alignments by examining historical cases, specifically focusing on the Japanese legislature from 1936 to 1942.

This study examines how economic interests shaped the behavior of political elites in prewar Japan as military influence expanded. Focusing on legislators with ties to different industries, it analyzes key parliamentary moments when they either resisted or supported the military’s suppression of dissent. The study highlights two major economic shocks: U.S. sanctions (1940–41), which harmed export-dependent sectors, and the expansion of military procurement, which benefited firms supplying the armed forces. Using statistical analysis, it finds a clear contrast: legislators linked to sanction-hit industries became significantly more supportive of military-backed policies, while those connected to procurement sectors showed no similar shift and, in some cases, became more independent. These findings challenge the common view that economic beneficiaries of war are the strongest supporters of authoritarian rule, showing instead that economic vulnerability can drive elites to align with authoritarian power.These insightful findings were published online in the journal American Political Science Review on March 2, 2026.

For those interested, here’s the link to the peer reviewed journal article:

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/cornered-mouse-sanctioned-elites-and-authoritarian-realignment-in-the-japanese-legislature-19361942/76310C35A1DCFF1CFC3A3C45BB7B10B0