Japan hat die Wahl. Dadurch können die Märkte Zinssätze festlegen, die den Yen stabilisieren, aber die Staatsverschuldung in die Krise treiben. Oder begrenzen Sie die Renditen, damit der Yen weiter fällt. Takaichis schuldenfinanziertes Konjunkturprogramm zeigt, dass die höchsten Regierungsebenen immer noch nicht verstehen, wie schlimm die Lage Japans ist
https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-denial-on-debt
8 Kommentare
This isn’t really news, is it? More like economic opinion from personal site
Substack warning
Increasing interest rates will make the Japanese government default and completely destroy the country forever.
The yen losing value wouldn’t be an issue if productivity increased and salaries rose, but this can never happen here.
They don’t understand the country is dying slowly from the inside, never mind the markets.
Another lost economic decade? dang
People have been making similar predictions for decades which never come to pass. There was a name for investors who lost their shirts for two decades betting against Japanese government bonds – the “widowmaker trade”. Doomer narratives aren’t appropriate for an economy Japan’s size with so many emergency levers.
The net debt is closer to 160% than 240% because Japanese government assets are massive and 90% of debt is held by internal investors who are not going to foment a debt crisis. The BoJ has pushed up interest rates from below 0% to 0.75% this year and the sky has not fallen in.
The weak yen is an issue but Japan is not some emerging market economy at risk of a bank run.
But what if just what if Japan does both at the same time.
at some point the yen carry trade will unwind and japanese insurers will move back their US treasuries investment back to Japan too . Right now the FX hedging cost them btw 2 to 3% per year according to bloomberg. With the yield difference shrinking fast they are just at break even rn. I think we could see a sharp and sudden yen appreciation soon. However, it won t last as people are chasing high returns on the US market thx to the AI bubble . I think Japan should restrict NISA advantage to japanese stock too.
But overall I feel like JGov doesn t have any clue how economy and financials markets are working….