Was passiert, wenn die größte Volkswirtschaft der Welt einen Tarifkrieg erklärt?

For those with at least a PhD in Economics,

What is the probability Trump is right and the US greatly benefits from this within 8 years, assuming his successor wins the office and retains his economic policies.

What actually happens is that in the short term countries around the world have slowed economic growth or recession. In the long term, assuming this doesn’t cause a global depression, the result will be that countries will adapt, find new partners and markets, and the USA will increasingly become irrelevant to the wider world.

To start, every economy will get a bit smaller. In the aftermath, some economies will be able to use the change to improve their position relatively to others and to what they did before, while others will stagnate or continue to shrink in the short to medium terms.