Republika SRPSKA: Der nächste potenzielle Flashpoint in Europa
Republika SRPSKA: Der nächste potenzielle Flashpoint in Europa
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Russian leaders have long seen the Balkans as a legitimate sphere of Russian influence. It has historically used a combination of attraction and coercion to advance its interests in the region, but generally preferred regional stability. Russia’s preference for stability may be changing as the war in Ukraine drags on into its third year, and Russian leaders seek new means of applying pressure on the West. The geopolitical flashpoint Russia appears to be testing most significantly is Republika Srpska, the ethnic Serb enclave of Bosnia and Herzegovina. There, the Dayton Peace Agreement faces an intensifying showdown with a secessionist movement aligned behind Milorad Dodik and a network of pro-Russian paramilitary groups and influence entrepreneurs.
RS has not been able to assert its independence on its own, and considering the geopolitical defeats in Armenia, Syria and possibly Georgia, Russia sure as hell doesn’t have the resources to do anything more than send them thoughts and prayers. Same goes for Serbia, where Vucic has slightly bigger issues to contend with right now.
This comes up every few years, and I don’t think the result will be wildly different.