In einer neuen Arbeit untersuchten Klimaforscher den Beitrag der verringerten atmosphärischen Albedo aufgrund der Verringerung der Umweltverschmutzung und stellten fest, dass sie zu 0,2+\\-0,1 W/m\^2/Jahrzehnt übermäßiger Sonnenabsorption von insgesamt 0,47 beiträgt w/m\^2/Jahrzehnt. Das bedeutet, dass überraschende 40 % der globalen Erwärmung auf die Beseitigung der Luftverschmutzung zurückzuführen sein könnten:
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8) Die gute Nachricht hier ist, dass dieser Effekt wahrscheinlich mit der Zeit nachlassen wird, da die Aerosolverschmutzung auf niedrigere Ausgangswerte sinkt, während der tatsächliche Effekt von Grün Hausemissionen könnten beherrschbarer sein als ursprünglich angenommen.
https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1c7fbhw/reduced_aerosol_pollution_may_account_for/
4 Kommentare
Science Magazine has a more accessible write-up covering this story: https://www.science.org/content/article/clearer-skies-may-be-accelerating-global-warming
Is your conclusion with the “good news” your own analysis? Because I couldn’t find anything in the paper or analysis reporting to suggest that.
In fact, the paper explicitly states that further accelerated warming this decade is likely due to the large energy imbalance.
Other analysis suggests that the masking effect of aerosols takes time to wear off (approx 30 years in the analysis), so further increases are yet to be seen.
If anything it seems that the warming due to greenhouse emissions may have been under calculated in some models.
My guess is that this simply puts us much closer to some nation unilaterally deciding to give high altitude sulphur spraying a go (probably over some other poor schmuck to limit negative effects themselves).
>The good news here is that this effect will probably wane with time as aerosol pollution is reduced to lower baseline levels, while the actual effect of green house emissions may be more manageable than originally thought.
We’re putting more aerosols and CO2 into the atmosphere all the time, still at an ever-increasing rate. Methane which is much more highly potent, is increasing alarmingly. Tipping points are being passed or have already been passed. And we’re still accelerating in our emissions.
>The good news here is that this effect will probably wane with time as aerosol pollution is reduced to lower baseline levels, while the actual effect of green house emissions may be more manageable than originally thought.
Reducing aerosols that are blocking sunlight will only *accelerate* global warming, even if other greenhouse gas output at a steady rate. Which they aren’t, we’re pumping out more of it than ever before, and are probably putting out way more than we can even measure properly.
This is like saying „well the ocean water has washed off my sunscreen, but I haven’t burned to a crisp yet so the sunburn shouldn’t be too bad.“
My dude, you have not even *begun* to feel the full wrath of the sun.