Hoppla, Wissenschaftler haben möglicherweise unsere globale Erwärmungszeitleiste falsch berechnet haben
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a64093044/climate-change-sea-sponge/
Hoppla, Wissenschaftler haben möglicherweise unsere globale Erwärmungszeitleiste falsch berechnet haben
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a64093044/climate-change-sea-sponge/
17 Kommentare
Submission Statement:
Whatever your stance is on climate change, it’s impossible to have missed the near-ubiquitous call to action to “keep temperatures from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.” Over the past few years, the somewhat bureaucratic phrase has become a rallying cry for the climate conscious.
This ambitious target first surfaced following the Paris Climate Agreement, and describes a sort of climate threshold—if we pass a long-term average increase in temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius, and hold at those levels for several years, we’re going to do some serious damage to ourselves and our environment.
Well, a paper from the University Western Australia Oceans Institute has some bad news: the world might’ve blown past that threshold four years ago. Published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the paper reaches this conclusion via an unlikely route—analyzing six sclerosponges, a kind of sea sponge that clings to underwater caves in the ocean. These sponges are commonly studied by climate scientists and are referred to as “natural archives” because they grow so slowly. Like, a-fraction-of-a-millimeter-a-year slow. This essentially allows them to lock away climate data in their limestone skeletons, not entirely unlike tree rings or ice cores.
By analyzing strontium to calcium ratios in these sponges, the team could effectively calculate water temperatures dating back to 1700. The sponges watery home in the Caribbean is also a plus, as major ocean currents don’t muck up or distort temperature readings. This data could be particularly useful ,as direct human measurement of sea temperature only dates back to roughly 1850, when sailors dipped buckets into the ocean. That’s why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses 1850 and 1900 as its preindustrial baseline, according to the website Grist.
“The big picture is that the global warming clock for emissions reductions to minimize the risk of dangerous climate change has been brought forward by at least a decade,” Malcolm McCulloch, lead author of the study, told the Associated Press. “Basically, time’s running out.”
The study concludes that the world started warming roughly 80 years before the IPCC’s estimates, and that we already surpassed 1.7 degrees Celsius in 2020. That’s a big “woah, if true” moment, but some scientists are skeptical. One such scientist, speaking with LiveScience, said that “ it begs credulity to claim that the instrumental record is wrong based on paleosponges from one region of the world
Honestly does it make much of a difference at this point? It’s already too late in so many ways, does it matter when the horses left the barn? We’re still closing the barn doors after the fact.
80 years earlier? Then how the „human made“ narrative fits in?
It doesn’t matter. We aren’t doing anything substantial to combat it anyways.
Humanity is the scourge of the earth, keep burning all the things and hasten the end. Were all worthless anyways.
It’s been fairly obvious for a while that when the models are wrong, they’re wrong on the low side. Lower temp predictions, slower timeline
Even weather app forecast data is consistently lower in temp predictions. The models haven’t caught up because the models are wrong
It’s going to happen faster than we though, and it’s going to be worse
And we’re still not going to do anything because energy companies need to keep profits high and politicians are too old to care what happens after they die
I hope so, please tell me it’s days and weeks and not years and years
No surprise i hope ?
Now i am team science all the way, but be honest, statistics can be played with and interpreted with great flexibility and mostly science haven’t tried to claim they knew how bad it was in the greatest detail. Scientists have tried to be not too alarmist and politicians have tried to act like there is still hope.
But really, we never stood a chance. Well, we would have if we would have started fixing our shit about a century ago, maybe even half a century ago, but once we got to the 21th century and still weren’t doing anything, we were pretty much doomed. Note that this is not an argument to still not do anything. There are varying degrees of doom.
How many climate change deadlines have already come and gone since people started talking about it? At least 3 i can think of, dating back to the 90s. If they were ever right about this, we’d already be living in an apocalyptic hellscape
They have been doing that since the sixties it isn’t man made look to the sun and study the big glowing object in the sky
I’m sure TRUMP will speed up any Global warming with more and more fossil fuel emissions
Even if this particular paper is wrong, the conclusion almost certainly is not.
I’ve lived through 10 straight years of „Oh we probably underestimated climate change progression so we’re updating our models to be worse than we thought“.
It’s pretty obvious we’re systemically under-estimating our impact on the world and we’re a lot further along than climate scientists wants to admit.
The reason they don’t want to admit it is pretty clear and not really nefarious. They don’t want to be seen as alarmist since we’ve had 70 years of propaganda about how climate scientists are making things up.
„Oops an army of lawyers, slanderous media and corrupt university administrators with a multi billion dollar warchest may have censored the correct calculations about our global warming timeline“
Fixed that for you.
You don’t get to scream „alarmist“ or „absurd hockey stick graph“ every time someone speaks for 50 years and then complain that they weren’t trying to warn you.
Truly disgusting level of victim blaming.
The headline makes it sound as if scientists screwed up. That’s an unfair optic. We keep getting new data, and finding new ways of measuring it, so models will keep getting better. Are they perfect now? No. Will they improve? Yes. Will they ever be perfect? No such thing.
Well , another thing to be worried about, thank you very much !
It’s time to throw in the towel. We’re never going to get everyone to come together on this. We’re never going to do enough to stop it.
It’s a challenge, not wanting to be alarmist. Hindsight 20/20