The Budget Lab’s economic modeling indicates that recently implemented tariffs will lead to a 1.0%-1.2% rise in the overall price level. This inflationary pressure is projected to coincide with a 0.6% decline in real GDP growth in 2025. The resulting economic strain is estimated to cost the average American family between $1,600 and $2,000 annually. Critically, because tariffs are regressive taxes, the economic burden falls most heavily on lower-income households, with estimated losses ranging from $900 to $1,100 per year.
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The Budget Lab’s economic modeling indicates that recently implemented tariffs will lead to a 1.0%-1.2% rise in the overall price level. This inflationary pressure is projected to coincide with a 0.6% decline in real GDP growth in 2025. The resulting economic strain is estimated to cost the average American family between $1,600 and $2,000 annually. Critically, because tariffs are regressive taxes, the economic burden falls most heavily on lower-income households, with estimated losses ranging from $900 to $1,100 per year.