Ukraine ohne Amerika: Wie Kyiv angesichts eines feindlichen Washingtons bestehen kann

[SS from essay by Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Chair of the Centre for Defence Strategies and a Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council. From 2019 to 2020, he served as Ukraine’s Defense Minister.]

Last week, the world witnessed a contentious, on-camera Oval Office confrontation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, U.S. President Donald Trump, and U.S. Vice President JD Vance. What began as a relatively standard exchange quickly escalated into an unprecedented public dispute. Yet when stripped of emotion, these core disagreements have been clear for some time: Must Ukraine accept ending the war no matter the terms, or does it have the ability to influence them? Can it expect any long-term security commitments to guard against future Russian aggression, or does it have no option but to unconditionally halt its operations? And if Kyiv refuses to comply and the United States withdraws support—as the Trump administration has reportedly begun doing this week—can Ukraine survive on its own?

Even before the meeting, the White House had made clear its position: [Ukraine](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/regions/ukraine) has no leverage and therefore no ability to set conditions. Zelensky, of course, has firmly rejected this conclusion. For Ukrainians, ending the war is undoubtedly a welcome goal. And after three years of brutal fighting, previous strategies—including those pursued by prior administrations—have failed to open a clear path to peace. While Western assistance has been crucial to Ukraine’s survival, restrictions on the range and use of weapons have led to an infantry-centric war of attrition that has severely strained Ukrainian forces and offered no clear route to victory.

How did Finland survive the Winter war? Ukraine needs to be on defense and inflict as much damage on Russians as possible while minimizing their own losses. You think this would be obvious but Ukraine has stupidly tried to counterattack the Russia and regain their lands which has benefited Russia immensely. Ukraine cannot afford to lose personnel but Russia has a higher tolerance.

At the end of the Winter War, Finland ceded some territory to Russia while maintaining their sovereignty. If Ukraine can cut a deal in which a similar outcome happens, then Ukrainians can rebuild their country and be prepared for the next attack. Q