Wie groß ist Russlands Appetit auf Umwälzungen? Trotz Trumps Umarmung gibt es Grenzen für die störenden Impulse Moskaus

[SS from essay by Hanna Notte Director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Nonresident Senior Associate with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.]

U.S. President Donald Trump’s embrace of Russia would seem to heighten a threat that has raised alarms in Western capitals for the past year: the alignment of a formidable set of adversaries, including China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, in a Russian-led “axis of upheaval.” All four countries are revisionist, intent on overturning a global order that they see as stacked against them. The West has feared that, in addition to lending each other economic, military, and political support, these countries may stir conflict whose destabilizing effects the West would struggle to contain. As it breaks from its Western allies and engages Moscow in negotiations over the war in Ukraine, Washington has suggested that one of its goals is to drive wedges between Russia and its partners. That outcome is unrealistic. Russia expects to win in Ukraine sooner or later, with or without a U.S. deal. It will therefore see little reason to cut ties with valued partners just to please Trump—and will be especially reluctant to upset a reliable relationship with Beijing for the sake of one with Washington that may last only until the next U.S. election. If the Trump administration lifts U.S. pressure on Moscow anyway, Russia could end up having both stronger ties with fellow revisionist states and a previously unimaginable degree of tolerance from Washington for its disruptive foreign policies.