Die Achse des Widerstands wird immer kleiner

Arash Azizi: “The Iranian regime spent decades building the Axis of Resistance, a coalition of anti-Western militias that extended Tehran’s influence deep into the Arab world. But what takes years to build can collapse seemingly overnight. Iraq is the latest country in which many leaders are attempting to move out of Iran’s orbit.

“Last year, the Axis rapidly slid from the seeming height of its power into terminal decline. Israel battered two key members, Hamas and Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell to its opponents. In Lebanon, the Parliament elected a new president and a new prime minister who are not on friendly terms with the Axis. Until recently, Tehran liked to boast that it controlled four Arab capitals: Damascus, Beirut, Sanaa, and Baghdad. The first two have slipped away. The third is still controlled by the Houthis, who remain loyal to Tehran. But what about the fourth?

“Iran’s influence in Baghdad runs through the country’s Shiite militias and political parties. Iraq’s prime minister can hardly govern without the support of Shiite groups. And yet, the degree of Tehran’s control over Baghdad is always changing. Pro-Tehran parties can’t form a government on their own; they have to form coalitions with other parties, including those dominated by Kurds and Sunnis, who have little ideological affinity with the Axis. And even among Iraq’s Shia, the pro-Tehran position is heavily contested—all the more so, surely, now that the region’s balance of power has shifted away from Iran.

“In 2021, pro-Tehran parties were roundly defeated in Iraq’s parliamentary elections. Muqtada al-Sadr, a charismatic Shia cleric and vociferous critic of Iran, looked set to form a government. But the pro-Iranian forces staged violent street clashes and, through clerical and parliamentary maneuvering, managed to stop this. Mohammed al-Sudani assumed the premiership in October 2022 in what was largely seen as an Iranian victory—not least because the prime minister he replaced, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, had been Iraq’s first non-Islamist ruler since the fall of Saddam. Kadhimi had restored Iraqi ties with Sunni powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, even while keeping excellent relations with Iran and encouraging the restoration of Iranian-Saudi diplomatic relations.

“Yet Tehran’s hold over Baghdad is far from secure. Al-Sudani relies on the support of the pro-Tehran parties, but he has also continued to pursue much of Kadhimi’s regional agenda of cementing ties with Arab states. And two of his major coalition partners, the Sunni-dominated Progress Party and the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), had previously formed a pact with Sadr. Even Sudani’s own small party, the Euphrates Movement (also known by its Arabic name, al-Furatayn), once explored a coalition with Sadr. Which is to say that Sadr has lost the intra-Shia battle for now, but his previous allies still hold a good deal of power in Iraq and share it with the pro-Tehran parties at their pleasure.

“Many issues divide Iraqis, but one unites many of them: They don’t want Iraq to be a battleground for Iran’s conflicts with the United States and Israel. Nor, given the declining fortunes of Tehran’s Axis, do they wish to be on the losing team in the region.”

Read more here: [https://theatln.tc/RPGltBp2](https://theatln.tc/RPGltBp2)

I mean America just joined it so not sure if it’s getting smaller, lol