Was die Gazaner wollen: Ein brutaler Krieg hat die Unterstützung für die Hamas geschwächt – aber er hätte mit Israel härter Frieden gemacht
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-gazans-want
Was die Gazaner wollen: Ein brutaler Krieg hat die Unterstützung für die Hamas geschwächt – aber er hätte mit Israel härter Frieden gemacht
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-gazans-want
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[SS from essay by Scott Atran, Co-Founder of Artis International and Distinguished Research Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University; Ángel Gómez, Senior Fellow at Artis International and Professor of Psychology at the National Distance Education University in Madrid.]
In the weeks since Israel’s fragile January 19 cease-fire and hostages-for-prisoners deal with Hamas, the issue of what should happen to Gaza and its 2.1 million inhabitants has come starkly into view. The war has reduced much of Gaza to ruins, with its schools, hospitals, civilian infrastructure and ecology now largely destroyed and a huge portion of its population lacking adequate shelter. The constant threat of the cease-fire’s breakdown has fueled its own daily dread of further devastation. Even as U.S. President Donald Trump has floated chimerical ideas about an eventual U.S. “takeover” of Gaza and the permanent relocation of its population, external powers have made little progress on formulating a strategy for governance and security in the territory now.
Strangely absent from this debate are Gazans themselves. It is reasonable to assume that more than 15 months of pulverizing conflict have changed the perceptions of ordinary civilians in the territory about what they want for their future, how they see their land, who they think should be their rulers, and what they consider to be the most plausible pathways to peace. Given the extraordinary price they have paid for Hamas’s actions on October 7, 2023, Gazans might be expected to reject the group and favor a different leadership. Similarly, outside observers might anticipate that after so much hardship, Gazans would be more prepared to compromise on larger political aspirations in favor of more urgent human needs.
Gazans voted for Hamas, and the majority still seem to support them. So I guess Gazans got what they wanted.
Actions that would speak loudest include protesting Hamas in the streets, expressing support for a leader who encourages peace and deradicalization, and helping Israel bring the hostages home.
I assume most gazans just want to live normally. But they see Israel as a part of them not being able to live normally.
We can describe this conflict however we want, but in essence it’s two nations battling it out in pure zero sum style over a piece of land.
It’s ugly, and probably will get uglier.
Even if a two state solution will be in place and they have their own place. What forces Hamas or some other group not to lob more missiles?
The dynamics are such that the Palestinians nor the Israelis will ever truly accept a two state solution, they’ll only accept one state owned by their own groups.
7 October has radicalised Palestinians more. Israel has been radicalised for decades because of growth of orthodoxy and 7 October.
Brutal War has not weakened support for Hamas. Support for hamas remains strong, waxing and waning mostly with the perception of Hamas‘ strength, victory narratives, and such.
There are four parts to this support. One is support among palestinians, which is most complex. Second is support among allies… Qatar, Yemen, Iran, Lebanon, etc. Third is support among arab and Islamic countries… the most cynical part. Fourth is support among „pro-palestinians“ in europe and the US… the most fickle part.
The largest thing affecting support of all these parts is the perception/expectation that Hamas coninue to rule post war. Support will melt as soon as it appears they will lose power if/when the war ends.
If the gazans want to keep waging wars against they can’t win against Israel it makes it very difficult to sympathize with their plight.
>Before the war in Gaza began, research showed that a clear majority of Palestinians in Gaza supported a two-state solution whereas just 20 percent supported a military solution that could result in the destruction of the state of Israel. In the January survey, less than half, or 48 percent, still preferred a two-state solution, while nearly as many, 47 percent, preferred the dissolution of Israel.
Palestinians have never tried to dissolve Israel before, I wonder how that will work out for them