Ab gestern wird die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Asteroiden „2024 Jahre“ auf die Erde auswirken wird, auf 1 zu 42 erhöht. Der Asteroid wird auf 130 bis 330 Fuß lang geschätzt und würde sich am 22. Dezember 2032 auswirken. Der Risikokorridor überschreitet Teile Indiens, Afrika südlich der Sahara, der Atlantische Ozean und der Norden Südamerikas.
https://www.supercluster.com/editorial/an-asteroid-stands-a-chance-at-impacting-earth-are-we-prepared
23 Kommentare
The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything is 1in 42.
And to think I was just worried about my social security benefits running out in 2032..
At this point, I’m honestly rooting for anything that might shorten the Trump administration.
I don’t really understand the math in this article but I prefer the stat that there is a 2% chance of it hitting earth.
Ok, 1 in 42 is starting to sound a little scary there. Even if its only a city levelling impact, that could be millions of people if in the wrong place.
Oh thank God, if it hits earth it won’t hit near me and ruin Christmas. Any luck it’ll deviate slightly and hit DC.
What kind of extinction event are we talking about here?
If we have enough of the people on the southern hemisphere jump in unison we might be able to change that path to hit north America instead. Sweet release from this hell
Possibly a pretty massive evacuation if projected to hit near a populated area rather than ocean or desert, but dooable if refinement of the path confirms and impact point to within a few hundred miles. The other issue is how many „years without a summer“ we’ll be looking at due to the dust cloud if it hits land; will this be another Krakatoa level event?
I forget, how big was the asteroid don’t look up?
Looks like I’ve got a 1 in 42 chance of booking a flight to India, Northern South America, or Sub Saharan Africa in 2032
Rather than a „1:42 chance that it will hit Earth“, it would be more accurate to state that we’re almost 98% sure it won’t hit Earth. We just can’t be 100% certain yet. That probability cone will get refined over the next months/ years, and in all likelihood, that risk will go to zero.
Does that mean ~98% sure it won’t hit earth? Or is this like a 2% yes 18% no 80% maybe?
Ehh, wha? Finally a number that makes me look up for a moment.
It’s really 1 in 20. Based on ruling out known near-miss orbital paths. Wonder when the official numbers will catch up.
So the part of the world that’s mostly fucked is about to get fisted?
[r/upliftingnews](https://reddit.com/r/upliftingnews)
It would obviously be a terrible thing for it to hit but I’d be lying if I said it wouldn’t be the slightest bit fun to live the end of the world.
I’m a little puzzled. What’s the X factor here that makes this so vague?
We know the asteroid’s velocity and trajectory. We know the Earth’s velocity and trajectory. This seems like a simple two-body physics problem. What’s missing that prevents the math from spitting out an exact coordinate of impact?
I can’t wait. All we have to do is continue to elect Republicans and we’ll ensure that all of humanity is destroyed on December 22, 2032.
Hundred meters long at most? It looks nukeable, right?
Scott Manley said something about 40 MT explosion on impact. So we are talking about the Tsar bomb going off in a major city. Could kill millions of people.
But there is more than enough time to plan a mission to prevent that. Put a 1-2T payload on a Falcon Heavy and divert the asteroid in 2028/2029.
Whatever the risk corridor for impact is, the whole planet’s gonna feel it.