Heirat ist der Schlüssel zum Geburtenrückgang in Japan – In seinen jüngsten Prognosen hatte das japanische Nationalinstitut für Bevölkerungs- und Sozialversicherungsforschung damit gerechnet, dass die Zahl im Jahr 2035 auf 755.000 sinken würde. Im Grunde ist sie nun ein gutes Jahrzehnt früher als geplant da.

From the article

>The country has grown accustomed to these numbers confirming a relentless story of falling births and, more generally, of population decline. But these were unsettling.
>
>In its most recent forecasts, Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had expected the number to fall to 755,000 in 2035. It is now basically there a good decade ahead of schedule.
>
>The relationship between falling marriages and falling births is cemented in Japan by a key data point. For many decades, the ratio of children born in Japan out of wedlock has hovered just above 2 per cent — the lowest of all OECD countries, where the average rate is about 42 per cent. Stable, long-lasting Japanese marriages, despite the many financial and other issues cited by couples as an impediment to having large families, are pretty consistent producers of about 1.9 children. 
>
>Put very simply, to produce a bigger annual cohort of babies, Japan needs more and longer-lasting marriages, preferably by people starting younger.
>
>As an ambition (if that is what Japan’s politicians decide it must be) the idea of fighting the societal trend towards marrying later and less is as grand and interventionist as they come.
>
>As a policy, it will require ingenuity of a type most developed countries have yet to demonstrate.

“Marriage” is simply a property & liability contract, and historically the woman has been the main piece of “property”.

It’s an old tradition that needs to be phased out in favor of more modern laws that protect and care for individuals. Especially children.

I don’t understand what this is saying. Less marriages and there for less children?

I predict that birthrate will settle to near 0.5 and I predict it will happen faster than anyone predicted. Current young generation seems not to care about family. This all will happen at other countries too.

> Put very simply, to produce a bigger annual cohort of babies, Japan needs more and longer-lasting marriages, preferably by people starting younger. As an ambition (if that is what Japan’s politicians decide it must be) the idea of fighting the societal trend towards marrying later and less is as grand and interventionist as they come.
As a policy, it will require ingenuity of a type most developed countries have yet to demonstrate.

Have yet to demonstrate thank goodness.

Why does anyone think that influencing marriages and birthrates is a legitimate function of government? It’s there to serve the citizens, not control their numbers and demographics. That implies that the citizens serve the government, to me an abhorrent concept.

Eventually, one of these governments will discover that they need to straight up pay people to have kids and pay enough that its a substitute for working.

This is all because of the shitty work and family culture over there. Cannot believe the number of Americans who idealize Japan because of anime and don’t realize how much of a shitty place it is to live in terms of work/life balance and autonomy. That place sucks so much and was absolutely one of my least favorite places to visit. Everything feels superficial, fake and no one is showing their true selves in public from my experience

At worst, the economy will shrink drastically and formerly well established Japanese companies will get weak enough to be bought out by American, European or Chinese companies.

At best, the government will finally encourage and enforce unionization efforts, pour billions into the arts(so creative people can pump out more optimistic visions of the future in their art), spend a solid 20-30% of the annual budget on mitigating the worst effects of climate change, enforce anti trust legislation and grants to people trying to start their own businesses, and finally relax immigration standards but be strict when it comes to deportation criteria. Commit a crime and you’re instantly denied re entry into the country and deported.

And of course full throated support for women. Women are avoiding marriage also due to toxic attitudes about „a woman’s place“ a concentrated effort to eliminate these outdated ideas of women not being free to control their economic and biological goals will lead to women being more interested in men who expect to share labor in the home, be fully present for their children, and see her more as a team mate than a cook and maid who should do what he says and never complain.

In short: actually listen to people.

I don’t see Japan withering away and becoming some sort of wasteland, but it may be invaded and annexed by an aggressive country desperate for land and resources. When your average JDF soldier is 50 years old, there won’t be much of a „war“ to speak of. 

they also need immigration to boost their numbers, and with worldwide births tapering off as well that might not even be an option at some point.

Here’s an article on the number of births and deaths in Japan last year. [https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01916](https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01916)

The population dropped by 831,872 people in 2023, 782,305 in 2022. The drop in population is accelerating. At some point the population decrease will start slowing down just because there’s fewer people.

Turns out being a vastly xenophobic nation which bases its identity on ethnicity in this day and age has drawbacks