Wie eine Reihe von Fehleinschätzungen den Krieg Saudi-Arabiens im Jemen neu auslösten
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/10/middleeast/saudi-yemen-war-miscalculations-intl
Wie eine Reihe von Fehleinschätzungen den Krieg Saudi-Arabiens im Jemen neu auslösten
https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/10/middleeast/saudi-yemen-war-miscalculations-intl
3 Kommentare
From what I see it all boils down to Trump attacking Iran A major miscalculation by Saudi Arabia was its reliance on continued American support, experts say. Despite signing a new defense pact with Washington last year and being designated a Major Non-NATO Ally by the US, Riyadh has been disappointed by what it sees as waning US commitment to its security.
Lack of preparation
Eight weeks after the UAE withdrawal, the US and Israel launched a war on Iran, killing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The moves sparked a conflict that has plunged the region into unprecedented turmoil and placed Washington’s allies, including Saudi Arabia, in Iran’s crosshairs.
The timing was unfortunate for Saudi Arabia, several experts say. After contending with the UAE-backed separatist push in Yemen, the US and Israel triggered a regional war. And despite years of trying to stop the war from breaking out in Yemen, the pressure Trump imposed on Iran was expected to eventually trigger a Houthi push on the kingdom
A hasty UAE exit
Damaged military vehicles, reportedly sent by the United Arab Emirates to support Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist forces, following an air strike carried out by the Saudi-led coalition in the port of Mukalla, southern Yemen, on December 30.
When Saudi warplanes struck a shipment of military vehicles sent to Yemen by the UAE last year, a decade-old alliance between two nations fighting Iran’s influence in Yemen shattered, leaving the kingdom to contend with the crisis alone after Abu Dhabi withdrew its forces.
Part of why this whole thing is so utterly baffling to me, is that the Saudis did a relatively decent job navigating the U.S.|Iran war. Saudi Arabia was probably the least attacked GCC country when the conflict was at it’s most volatile in March.
Where things get baffling is that the Saudis attacked Sanaa international airport because an Iranian plane was carrying a Houthi delegation to Khamanei’s funeral (which a Saudi delegation was also attending fyi). Lot of claims going around that IRGC officers were on that plane, but in reality I really don’t think that’s relevant to this in terms of what is ultimately a judgement of Saudi decision making and rationale.
Let’s say for argument’s sake there was definitively IRGC officers on that plane, should the Saudis not have known that attacking Sanaa international airport would effectively result in a resumption of hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia? Are the Saudis so naive and stupid that they thought attacking Sanaa airport would just result in a couple days of escalation and that would be the end of it? If you are going to do a military action you should expect and be prepared for worst case scenarios, and the Saudis were absolutely not. The Saudis treated the Houthis as being a stagnant force that has not advanced as a fighting force in the years where there was an active ceasefire.
We now seem to know that the Houthis had been planning all along to take the western coast and were just waiting for the perfect excuse to do so, and the Saudis gave them that excuse on a silver platter back in July. The Saudis also seemed to have grossly over-estimated the military might of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Reports of fighters only being on the payroll but not showing up to fight [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/12/middleeast/yemen-houthi-saudi-us-blame-intl).
The Saudis did a pretty good job of avoiding the worst of the regional war with Iran, yet they seemingly find themselves caught in a trap eerily similar to the one the Americans find themselves stuck in, in Iran. There’s no good options for the Saudis in Yemen, and they now find themselves caught in a escalation trap where the Houthis have complete escalation dominance. In the same vein, the Mecca defense Pact has also demonstrated how absolutely toothless it was, which is not only bad for the Saudis in this moment, but bad for the long term health of the alliance. These sort of pacts are only as good as their reputation, and the reputation of this one is already in the gutter.
The part I really don’t understand is why Saudi Arabia decided to pick a fight with the UAE. It is what gave the Houthis in Yemen an opening, as it divided the forces opposing them between Saudi and UAE factions. Of course the Houthis were going to take advantage of that sooner or later, particularly when the US Navy is busy blockading Iran and cannot help the Saudi fight them. Then the Saudi decided to attack them as well and gave the Houthis the excuse they wanted. It really is bad decision after bad decision.