Kann jemand die Chancen dieses Rubbellos erklären?
Sie rubbeln 3 von 4 Feldern frei. Zeigen alle drei aufgedeckten Felder Flammen, gewinnt man. Gibt es eine Strategie für die Auswahl der Felder, die gestrichen werden sollen, oder ist jede Auswahl gleich wahrscheinlich?
Angenommen, die Symbole werden zufällig platziert. Spielt die von Ihnen gewählte Position eine Rolle oder sind alle Entscheidungen gleich wahrscheinlich?
https://i.redd.it/qjsx5ragpcfh1.jpeg
Von Schweizsvensk
11 Kommentare
the probability of winning is 25%. out of a choice of 4 you need to pick the one correct one
Just scan the code regardless.. it works anyway.
if it is random and there is only 1 wrong field, then the chances are 25%.
maybe easier to see if you switch it around: instead of thinking of it as scratching three, you need to choose ONE that you don’t scratch. so one of 4, aka 25%
There are 4 possible ways to select 3 out of 4 fields (1+2+3, 1+2+4, 1+3+4, 2+3+4). Only 1 of the 4 possible ways contains no cloud, so it should be a 25% probability to win.
But by now I’m convinced that they are specifically made so that I can’t win.
To calculate the probability of winning, you need to know the probability p that any individual field contains a flame. Assuming the fields are independent, the probability that all three selected fields contain flames is p^3.
For example, if each field has a 50% chance of containing a flame, then the probability of winning is:
0.5^3 = 0.125
So the chance of winning is 12.5%.
Since you have no information that distinguishes one field from another, every field is equally likely to contain a flame. Therefore, there is no strategy that improves your odds.
I’d assume all 4 squares are flames anyway, getting people to scratch them is more of an engagement thing
There used to be a strategy for choosing that involved using a flashlight. They fixed it. I’m sure there are still more advanced techniques if you really want that snickers bar.
Mathematically, you are just choosing 1 bad field out of 4, it’s a trivial 25% chance.
Chasch es au umgekehrt betrachte: Du wettsch verlüüre. Du hesch vier Feldli, eis devo hed die Gwitterwolke. Du hesch also en 1/4 Chance die Wolke ztreffe.
Gezielt eis Feld ufzdecke isch glichzsetze mit bewusst eis Feld nid ufzmache.
25% vs. 75% • ~67% • 50% was au wiider 25% ergid:
3/4 • 2/3 • 1/2 = 6/24 = 1/4 = 25%
I would somehow figure out a way to shine through light from the back and use ChatGPT to find patterns to see where the targets are, because they did improve it so good that you cant see it by eye.
Do you have the problem with this year’s cards that you damage the picture underneath while scratching the seal?
My daughter worked out that holding the voucher up to a very strong light source allows one to find the losing field. So now our chances have jumped to 100%.