[Excerpt from essay by Ben A. Vagle, Knight-Hennessy scholar at Stanford University and J.D. candidate at Stanford Law School; and Stephen G. Brooks, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.]
The United States has more potential economic leverage than China does. Rather than reflecting underlying weakness, Washington’s concessions to Beijing since early 2025 are a function of China wielding its limited economic weapons effectively and the United States failing to do the same with its own more powerful arsenal. In fact, Washington maintains crucial structural advantages over Beijing—most notably because China depends on the United States and its allies for high-tech imports and to provide markets for its export-driven growth model. Still, to be able to use this leverage, the United States needs to act in concert with its Asian and European allies.
SkyMarshal on
Unfortunately that’s not going to happen till 2029 at the earliest. The current administration lacks the minimal level of sophistication to understand that leverage, the leadership necessary to coordinate it, and has no concept of „allies“.
MeatPiston on
We’re only lucky that China is chronically bad at FP,
And Xi is even worse a domestic economic policy.
jaybizzleeightyfour on
The same allies Trump has been attacking, funding far right groups in their countries, allies he said he’d invade and putting tarrifs on them?
AnarchoLiberator on
It has been ever thus.
broohaha on
Don’t count on Washington working with its allies. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is the Trump administration’s economic policy.
StupidWriterProf175z on
Why does the U.S. need to win?
Crowmakeswing on
What allies? Israel looks like a really abusive marriage. Are they going to help invade Cuba, Venezuela, Greenland, Canada or Mexico?
leopardbaseball on
Win what?
TheFallingStar on
It is too late.
Just look at Canada, we put 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, and worked with Biden to develop a North America EV supply chain.
Trump flushed it all down the drain.
ImperiumRome on
It’s so funny that right under this post is another post that says: ***Trump threatens EU with ‘substantial TARIFF’ for ‘ROBBING’ U.S. tech giants***
These people are so unprepared for the way this is actually going to go it’s absurd. The opportunity for America to realistically change course is gone. And even if it wasn’t Americans would double down because at least half of them are evil.
This-Professional390 on
Trump called Canada a security threat and put tarrifs on the EU. How exactly is he coordinating with allies?
AnyStrength4863 on
China has never once thought that the US’s allies would abandon it, not even at this point, and I’m almost certain they won’t think this could happen in the future. China has conducted research on this topic for decades and has verified it several times.
China only hopes that in a 1vs1 confrontation with the US, its allies won’t all, all at the same time, in all aspects, side with the US. That’s enough.
Washington has recently criticised China repeatedly for being overconfident through multiple channels. So don’t worry, China knows that.
Plastic-Injury8856 on
The “if” in this statement has to carry a lot of weight. We have at least two and a half more years before America may be close to a reliable partner again.
Stufilover69 on
Actually I don’t care if the US loses
iamBulaier on
„works with allies“ 24 hours after Trump imposed trade tariffs on Australia
EffectiveEconomics on
And what do they mean by “win”??
China is building more trains, solar, wind, and renewables infrastructure I’d prefer they keep going….
We can argue about politics but they’re kicking ass where it counts.
Far_Mathematici on
If
Another_Slut_Dragon on
America has no leverage for high tech imports. China has a domestic chip manufacturing industry and if it wants to it can replicate anything it needs within a couple of years. And they’ll use importing workarounds until that point.
China has time on its side. It can afford to kick back and wait for its opponent to crumble and fail.
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[Excerpt from essay by Ben A. Vagle, Knight-Hennessy scholar at Stanford University and J.D. candidate at Stanford Law School; and Stephen G. Brooks, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.]
The United States has more potential economic leverage than China does. Rather than reflecting underlying weakness, Washington’s concessions to Beijing since early 2025 are a function of China wielding its limited economic weapons effectively and the United States failing to do the same with its own more powerful arsenal. In fact, Washington maintains crucial structural advantages over Beijing—most notably because China depends on the United States and its allies for high-tech imports and to provide markets for its export-driven growth model. Still, to be able to use this leverage, the United States needs to act in concert with its Asian and European allies.
Unfortunately that’s not going to happen till 2029 at the earliest. The current administration lacks the minimal level of sophistication to understand that leverage, the leadership necessary to coordinate it, and has no concept of „allies“.
We’re only lucky that China is chronically bad at FP,
And Xi is even worse a domestic economic policy.
The same allies Trump has been attacking, funding far right groups in their countries, allies he said he’d invade and putting tarrifs on them?
It has been ever thus.
Don’t count on Washington working with its allies. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is the Trump administration’s economic policy.
Why does the U.S. need to win?
What allies? Israel looks like a really abusive marriage. Are they going to help invade Cuba, Venezuela, Greenland, Canada or Mexico?
Win what?
It is too late.
Just look at Canada, we put 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, and worked with Biden to develop a North America EV supply chain.
Trump flushed it all down the drain.
It’s so funny that right under this post is another post that says: ***Trump threatens EU with ‘substantial TARIFF’ for ‘ROBBING’ U.S. tech giants***
[https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/trump-tariffs-eu-trade-google-apple-tech.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/trump-tariffs-eu-trade-google-apple-tech.html)
These people are so unprepared for the way this is actually going to go it’s absurd. The opportunity for America to realistically change course is gone. And even if it wasn’t Americans would double down because at least half of them are evil.
Trump called Canada a security threat and put tarrifs on the EU. How exactly is he coordinating with allies?
China has never once thought that the US’s allies would abandon it, not even at this point, and I’m almost certain they won’t think this could happen in the future. China has conducted research on this topic for decades and has verified it several times.
China only hopes that in a 1vs1 confrontation with the US, its allies won’t all, all at the same time, in all aspects, side with the US. That’s enough.
Washington has recently criticised China repeatedly for being overconfident through multiple channels. So don’t worry, China knows that.
The “if” in this statement has to carry a lot of weight. We have at least two and a half more years before America may be close to a reliable partner again.
Actually I don’t care if the US loses
„works with allies“ 24 hours after Trump imposed trade tariffs on Australia
And what do they mean by “win”??
China is building more trains, solar, wind, and renewables infrastructure I’d prefer they keep going….
We can argue about politics but they’re kicking ass where it counts.
If
America has no leverage for high tech imports. China has a domestic chip manufacturing industry and if it wants to it can replicate anything it needs within a couple of years. And they’ll use importing workarounds until that point.
China has time on its side. It can afford to kick back and wait for its opponent to crumble and fail.