Ein Flugzeug voller Informanten | Die Vereinigten Staaten intensivieren ihre Jagd nach Drogen innerhalb der mexikanischen Regierung. Ist das alles der Auftakt zu einem Angriff?

Kevin Sieff: Marina del Pilar, the governor of the strategically important border state of Baja California, “was just caught on tape offering to become an FBI informant. The remarkable thing here is that she would not be the first; the list of current and former Mexican officials and drug traffickers who have offered to cooperate with the U.S. government is now lengthy.

“The phone exchange, released by the Mexican journalist Héctor de Mauleón, seemed almost too *Narcos* to be real, until del Pilar confirmed its authenticity. Her predecessor had arranged the phone call, she said, after the U.S. revoked her visa last year. As more recordings leaked in recent days, the country was transfixed. Columnists theorized about what del Pilar might know that she would be willing to trade for more favorable treatment. The Americans seemed to want her testimony for a bigger case—but who was their target?

“In order to fully grasp why politicians like del Pilar are considering cooperating with U.S. investigators, it is vital to keep in mind the current, overwhelming Mexican reality, which is that the country’s leaders believe that President Trump will intensify America’s intervention in Mexico. Their gravest concern—a plausible one—is that Trump will launch military strikes against the country.

“Since his second term began, Trump has periodically threatened military action inside Mexico, alluding to air strikes or operations that would ‘take out the cartels.’ Mexican officials have repeatedly rejected the possibility. ‘There will be no invasion of Mexico,’ President Claudia Sheinbaum said last year. But quietly, Mexican officials have discussed what it would mean if they were attacked by their neighbor and largest trading partner. Would it be a special-forces operation, like the one that seized former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro? A drone strike on a fentanyl lab? Some Mexican officials are reading books about the Mexican-American War, searching for historical precedent.

“Because the threat of military intervention is so dramatic, not enough attention has been paid to a type of intervention that is already taking place, one that could pave the way for strikes. In a break with long-standing precedent, American prosecutors have used informants to pursue members of the Mexican government, apparently ‘moving up the food chain,’ as one U.S. official described it to me. Del Pilar has become the most famous example of such cooperation …

“It’s a high-risk escalation in the Trump administration’s fight against narco corruption—and possibly also a pretext for a unilateral attack. Trump could use evidence of the government’s links to organized crime in an attempt to justify using force in Mexico. This week, the Trump-appointed head of the Drug Enforcement Administration, Terry Cole, gave a speech describing ‘the deadly connection between cartel networks and the Mexican government.’

“‘They are one in the same,’ he said.”

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There are large swaths of Mexico that are essentially not controlled by the government at all. Being a civilian must be terrifying in these places.

Outside intervention is a huge risk though. Corrupt governments are still governments, and if you remove them something worse will fill the power vacuum without an occupying force to keep order.

The saying “You break it, you buy it” had some application here. Especially considering Mexico shares a large border.

Isn’t the only sustainable and effective approach possible to promote industrial growth and development in Latin America?

This seems to be completely omitted from discussions of cartels and illegal immigration.

What is the alternative for these people if the market in the US and Europe is for drugs, copper and fruit and little else?