[OC] Wählerstatus und Präsidentschaftswahl nach Alter bei der US-Wahl 2024
Von ptrdo
[OC] Wählerstatus und Präsidentschaftswahl nach Alter bei der US-Wahl 2024
Von ptrdo
15 Kommentare
This chart compares voter participation and presidential preference across six age groups in the 2024 U.S. election. Census estimates show reported turnout rising steadily with age, from 47.7% among citizens ages 18–24 to 74.7% among those 65 and older. Pew’s validated-voter analysis shows the two youngest groups favoring Harris, ages 30–39 narrowly favoring Trump, ages 40–49 narrowly favoring Harris, and both groups over 50 favoring Trump. The brackets emphasize that ages 18–49 and 50+ represent approximate halves of the citizen voting-age population; the estimated median age is about 48.7 years.
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**Sources**
* U.S. Census Bureau. *Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2024*, Table 1: “Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex and Single Years of Age.” April 2025. These Current Population Survey figures are survey estimates of self-reported registration and voting, not administrative vote records.
[https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-587.html](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-587.html)
Direct workbook: [https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/tables/p20/587/vote01_2024.xlsx](https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/tables/p20/587/vote01_2024.xlsx)
* Hartig, Hannah, Scott Keeter, Andrew Daniller and Ted Van Green. *Voting Patterns in the 2024 Election*. Pew Research Center, June 26, 2025. The analysis defines validated voters as adult citizens who reported voting and were matched to an official turnout record; candidate choice remains self-reported.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/)
* Pew Research Center. *2016–2024 Validated Voter Detailed Tables*. The six-way age table supplies the Harris and Trump percentages used in the lower panel.
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JczVvbrlxkLiYYiNPSv0TRlWsbvYEihkZrnH1kQXIH8/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JczVvbrlxkLiYYiNPSv0TRlWsbvYEihkZrnH1kQXIH8/edit?usp=sharing)
* Pew Research Center. *Methodology: Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory*. The 2024 analysis surveyed 8,942 adult citizens and weighted the results to population, turnout and presidential-vote benchmarks.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/validated-voters-2024-methodology/](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/validated-voters-2024-methodology/)
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**Data**
| Age | Citizens | Reported voted | Harris | Trump | Other |
| —– | ——-: | ————-: | —–: | —-: | —-: |
| 18–24 | 27.5M | 47.7% | 62% | 36% | 2% |
| 25–29 | 18.8M | 55.2% | 56% | 40% | 4% |
| 30–39 | 39.5M | 60.2% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| 40–49 | 36.2M | 66.9% | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| 50–64 | 56.0M | 70.4% | 42% | 56% | 2% |
| 65+ | 58.0M | 74.7% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
Ages 18–49 account for approximately 122.1 million citizens, or 51.7% of the citizen voting-age population; ages 50+ account for approximately 114.0 million, or 48.3%.
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**Tools**
R; `ggplot2`, `dplyr`, `tidyr`, `readxl`, `patchwork` and `scales`; Adobe Illustrator for final typography, annotations and assembly.
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**Methodology**
Census Table 1 provides counts by single year of age. I aggregated those rows into Pew’s published age groups: 18–24, 25–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–64 and 65+. Census status shares were calculated within each cohort: reported voters divided by citizen population; registered nonvoters as registered minus voted; and the remainder as not registered or providing no registration response.
Pew’s published weighted Harris and Trump shares were transcribed from its six-way age table; “Other” was calculated as the remainder to 100%. Pew validated whether respondents turned out, but their candidate choice was self-reported. Its age-group margins of error are not displayed in the graphic.
The median was estimated cumulatively from the Census single-year counts and falls within age 48, at approximately 48.7 years. The 18–49 and 50+ brackets therefore depict approximate rather than exact halves. Census and Pew figures are presented as coordinated but separate estimates; they were not multiplied together to estimate candidate vote totals.
[1]: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-587.html „Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2024“
[2]: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/voting-patterns-in-the-2024-election/ „How voting patterns changed in the 2024 election: A detailed analysis | Pew Research Center“
[3]: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JczVvbrlxkLiYYiNPSv0TRlWsbvYEihkZrnH1kQXIH8/edit?usp=sharing „2016-2024 Validated Voter Detailed Tables – Google Sheets“
[4]: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/validated-voters-2024-methodology/ „Methodology | Pew Research Center“
You could add an extra bit of information: make each age group width proportional to how many people there are in it.
I would have never guessed half the US voting population is aged 50+, has this been trending up over the past few decades?
Third party and non voters really fucked us
And those young people are going to be living with the repercussions of not voting in 2016 and 2024 for decades.
Don’t blame me. I’m 68 and have voted Democrat since Jimmy Carter.
Old people being the majority of the voting population is nothing new. They lined up for Bush Sr and Bush Jr too.
The 65+ crowd has always been the most reliable voting demographic in the United States and reliability votes majority Republican.
And young people wonder why they keep getting shat on
You were told the pie was being divided and literally didnt show up to claim your share
Fuckin darwinism
so it isn’t my imagination that younger Millennials are more conservative than older ones.
People need to save this chart when folks complain that politicians don’t pay any attention to young people or listen to their concerns. The data on who votes and who doesn’t is why.
„Well, if they’d listen to us and do what we want, then maybe we’d vote for them,“ is what I usually hear people say in response, but it doesn’t work that way. You have to prove that you’re engaged in the electoral process first, and then you get politicians paying attention to you.
And people wonder why politics caters to older people…
Some quick math shows that if those under 30 voted at the same frequency as those 65+ (75% of eligible voters), that would’ve added ~6.7 million voters for Harris and ~4.2 million for Trump, or a ~2.5 million vote gain for Harris. Trump won the popular vote by ~2.3 million.
Of course there’s also the consideration of *where* those votes would be, but this still shows how getting younger people to vote can absolutely swing an election.
Is there solid evidence to suggest that those who didn’t vote would vote in the same way/party split as those who did within their age cohorts?
So what is the sample size here? I have seen [other sources](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) claiming Gen Z (18-29) swung sharply to the right versus previous elections and was close to 50-50 in 2024.
I don’t like these charts because people like to use them to say voter turnout is the problem but it doesn’t break it down by state. There are a lot of states where having a 100% turnout wouldn’t change much due to the electoral college. I would like to see one of these that show what states would flip if voter turnout was higher.