Über Russland schweben schwarze Wolken – das könnte Putin zu Friedensgesprächen zwingen

Once again, Russia is burning. [Ukrainian drones hit two warehouses belonging to the country’s biggest online retailer](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyxlm877p2o), Wildberries, on the outskirts of Moscow, killing eight people, after [reported strikes on petrochemical plants and a major oil refinery](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80209) earlier this week.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strikes had hit “major logistics facilities” which had been used to “supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment”. They came in response to the mass killing of Ukrainians, Zelensky said.

Unverified images circulating online showed plumes of black smoke rising from the site, which is often described as Russia’s version of Amazon, with dozens of workers running into a car park.

It is the latest in a wave of Ukrainian attacks hitting Russia where it hurts: at home.

Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil and gas facilities in a bid to stop the Kremlin from using fuel exports to fund its war. And it is having an impact: more than two-thirds of the country’s federal entities have reported government- or privately imposed [restrictions](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-fuel-shortages-kremlin/33787903.html) on gasoline and diesel sales, and retail fuel prices [have risen](https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/24/rosstat-zafiksiroval-silneishii-za20-let-skachok-tsen-nabenzin-v-rossii-a199117) by 3 per cent in the past week, according to a [report from think-tank ](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/putins-fuel-dilemma)the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Since late May, a surge in Ukrainian strikes has cut gas production by roughly a quarter and hiked up jet fuel prices at Russian airports by 17 per cent since early June.

“For years, the Kremlin has fought a war that most Russians could watch from a distance. Ukraine is beginning to change that,” said Petras Katinas and Natia Seskuria from RUSI.

“Its sustained strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure are turning the war into a daily economic burden, forcing the Kremlin to choose between export revenues and domestic stability.”

Last month, Vladimir Putin [publicly acknowledged](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-ukraine-russia-war-trump-peace-talks-b3006353.html) for the first time that Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure were creating “problems” and shortages of fuel.

Kyiv has been using drones to target Russian tankers sailing across the Sea of Azov, a key inland sea off the south of [Ukraine](https://inews.co.uk/topic/ukraine?ico=in-line_link) that connects to the Black Sea, Eastern Europe and the rest of the world.

In Crimea, which has been a target of Ukrainian attacks, [Russian authorities declared a state of emergency last month](https://inews.co.uk/news/images-show-putin-losing-grip-biggest-prize-4609582?ico=in-line_link) amid fuel shortages and power cuts. Photographs showed queues of cars waiting for fuel, while [video footage reportedly showed traffic jams](https://www.facebook.com/TELEGRAPH.CO.UK/videos/thousands-queue-to-escape-crimeafootage-shows-a-massive-queue-of-cars-trying-to-/1502159354930929/) as residents attempted to flee Crimea over the Kerch Bridge into Russia.

“Ukraine’s sustained strikes on Russian refineries are not only damaging infrastructure and squeezing Russia’s oil industry, but they are also forcing the Kremlin to spend more to keep fuel flowing at home while earning less from exports,” Katinas and Seskuria said.

“Many Russians [have endorsed the imperial project](https://www.statista.com/chart/28436/support-for-war-in-ukraine-russians/) in principle, but the fear of being directly affected by the war – through Ukrainian strikes on Russian cities or mounting economic hardship – is steadily [eroding enthusiasm](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/78472) for rallying around the flag and sacrificing more lives.”

As peace talks stall and battlefield frontlines remain largely unchanged, these types of attacks are designed to help move the needle in Ukraine’s military fortunes.

This is particularly important as the attention of Donald Trump – considered one of the few in the world able to force Russia into a peace agreement – appears to be [turned to the World Cup at home and Iran war abroad.](https://inews.co.uk/news/white-house-waded-into-falklands-row-iran-trumps-real-test-4654842?ico=in-line_link)

“After a long period of battlefield stagnation and a US policy pivot that risked relegating Ukraine behind other crises, Kyiv is reclaiming momentum by hitting Russia where it is most sensitive,” Katinas and Seskuria said.

If Ukraine can sustain this pressure, Putin may be forced into accepting more of Ukraine’s negotiating positions.

“One option is to recognise that Ukraine’s deep‑strike campaign is affecting Russia’s domestic political situation and that these costs will only rise if the war drags on,” they added.

“That would mean re‑entering negotiations with fewer ultimatums and, indirectly, accepting that Russia is unable to conquer Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions. So far, however, there is no indication that Putin is prepared to abandon any of his maximalist demands.”

Another alternative is to double down on efforts on the battlefield. Putin is reportedly [mulling another round of mass mobilisation](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-may-gamble-on-mobilization-to-rescue-russias-ukraine-invasion/) to increase his troop numbers – although the last attempt at this led to hundreds of thousands of military-age men fleeing the country.

These narrowing options show that Ukraine’s strategy – though bloody – is working, making the war “material, immediate and inescapable for those the Kremlin has tried hardest to shield,” Katinas and Seskuria said.

“It is this interaction that will determine whether Putin can sustain his maximalist ambitions or is eventually forced into a negotiated retreat on far less favourable terms.”

Dans sa mégalo, Poutine s’en fiche probablement, ou pire, ça renforce sa détermination et l’idée qu’il se fait d’être dans son bon droit pour restaurer la „grandeur de la russie“

Negative. Putin will do anything to stay in power, even if Russia burns to the ground. Him seeking a peace deal is the fastest way for him to have a polonium 210 overdose or dying of mysterious circumstances

Putin will and can never enter real honest peace talks. He can win or loose. Nothing in between.

Doubtful Putain would surrender or withdraw at all, but if he did I’d fucking laugh if Zelensky turned it down 🤣

The dude hasn’t bent over since after he’s been an adult. He won’t do it now for sure. It’s either he escalates senselessly and is taken out later or he is taken out sooner. I can’t see this ending any other way.