NATO verspricht Ukraine 140 Milliarden Euro über zwei Jahre: Wie realistisch ist das Ziel?

For almost four and a half years, Ukraine has been defending itself against the Russian invaders – with resilience, courage, and ingenuity. Particularly in recent months, the army has achieved some spectacular successes despite continued Russian pressure. However, one thing is clear: without the support of Western states, Ukraine’s situation would be much bleaker today.

The partner countries now intend to capitalize on this momentum. At the NATO summit in Ankara, the 32 member states committed to providing Ukraine with €70 billion in military equipment, support, and training for the current year. For 2027, they pledged to maintain this assistance „at least at an equivalent level,“ as stated in the final declaration.

This provides the Ukrainian army with a degree of planning certainty. At the same time, Ukraine’s allies want to signal to Moscow that their support will not waver and that Russia would be better off pursuing a negotiated solution instead of continuing to incur enormous human and material costs for limited progress on the battlefield.

# A fixed number is already a success.

But what are the grand promises of the NATO countries actually worth? Are they realistic – or is it merely empty rhetoric? Objectively speaking, it’s already a success for Ukraine that this year’s summit declaration includes a concrete figure. At last year’s summit – the first under the new American administration – there was only noncommittal talk of „direct contributions to the defense of Ukraine.“ The US, which completely halted financial support to Kyiv under Trump, had insisted on this.

Little can be expected from Washington regarding NATO’s new pledge to Ukraine. Just days before the Ankara summit, Matthew Whitaker, the American ambassador to NATO, stated that his country had „done more for Ukraine than anyone else.“ However, he could not have been referring to the period since his boss took office – the funds the US pledged for 2025 were based on agreements signed by Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden.

Whitaker and other US representatives point out that they initiated NATO’s PURL program, through which American weapons are supplied to Ukraine. That’s true – but the Europeans and Canada are footing the bill. The mere fact that the summit declaration specifies the Ukraine aid amount in euros and not – as is usually the case with NATO – in dollars, speaks volumes.

# Full transparency demanded

Of the 70 billion euros, 30 billion will be provided by the EU via the Ukraine support loan. At the EU summit last December, member states agreed on 90 billion euros for two years, but only two-thirds of that is earmarked for military aid. This leaves 40 billion euros for the 32 NATO allies, 23 of which are EU members.

There is no comprehensive overview of how far the Europeans and Canadians have progressed on this path. Even the NATO press office cannot provide one upon request. Diplomats at NATO headquarters criticize this: they demand full transparency so that, according to the principle of „naming and shaming,“ those responsible for excessive spending can be identified.

Based on national statements and figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), it is nevertheless possible to approximate the total aid expenditures to Ukraine. The IfW has been tracking promised and actual aid provided by donor countries since the start of the war in 2022. The last update was published up to April 2026, roughly two months before the Ankara summit. This data shows that military support, primarily weapons and equipment, worth nearly €10 billion, was delivered from Europe to Ukraine that year. The geographical disparities are striking – even though the summit declaration stipulates that the aid must be distributed „fairly.“

# France, Italy and Spain are falling behind

Germany and Great Britain remain the largest donors: between January and April alone, they provided military equipment worth €5 billion and €2 billion respectively. Sweden increased its support by another €1 billion at the beginning of the year. Other major donor countries, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, continue to deliver reliably, but hardly put together any aid packages worth billions until the spring.

That Germany and Great Britain lead the way in absolute figures is not particularly surprising given their economic size. However, they also hold their own when „adjusted“ for these figures. Other economically strong countries like France, Italy, and Spain, on the other hand, lag behind. Since 2025, they have largely failed to provide billions in new aid to Ukraine.

If one simply extrapolates the deliveries received by the end of April to the rest of the year, roughly 30 billion of the promised 40 billion would have been reached. However, the announcements from national governments are more reliable: a comprehensive overview is not possible, especially since the announced figures sometimes fail to differentiate between military, financial, and humanitarian aid. The NATO statement „requests“ military support.

# Promises are not yet delivered.

The German government, for example, has earmarked €11.5 billion for Ukraine in its 2026 budget, while Great Britain has allocated the equivalent of around €4.4 billion. Norway, with its 5 million inhabitants, is particularly noteworthy, having budgeted the equivalent of €7.6 billion for 2026 – over 80 percent of which is for military equipment.

In short: NATO’s 40 billion euro target is not unrealistic, but remains ambitious. The NATO media office writes that the alliance partners have already spent or pledged „significant funds“ for Ukraine by 2026, but that additional funds will still need to be raised.

The big question remains whether the efforts of the northern European and Baltic states will continue into next year. Relative to their economic strength, they are providing significantly more aid to Ukraine.

It may even require a greater effort, given that the NATO statement speaks of an „at least equivalent“ amount. Even if the announcements made in the coming months keep pace with this goal, caution is advised: Of the approximately €400 billion in aid for Ukraine that EU institutions and their member states pledged during the four and a half years of war, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), only around €180 billion had reached Kyiv by the end of April.

140 billion over two years sounds big until you realize only about 45% of past pledges actually got delivered. France, Italy, and Spain dragging their feet is the real story here, not the headline number. Without naming and shaming, the laggards keep getting a free pass while Norway with 5 million people outspends them all.