Close Menu
    Daten

    Rangliste der FIFA-Weltmeisterschaft-Gruppenphase und Aufstiegswahrscheinlichkeit nach dem 2. Spieltag [Update] [OC]

    Update zum Beitrag der letzten Woche verfügbar Hier.

    Der zweite Spieltag ist zu Ende, also habe ich die Simulation aktualisiert. Komische Situation in der Gruppe B, wo Bosnien der Favorit ist, gegen Katar zu gewinnen, aber geringere Chancen auf den Einzug in die K.-o.-Runde hat, weil 3 Punkte und die erwartete Tordifferenz nicht ausreichen würden, während 4 Punkte ausreichen würden.

    Das häufigste Endspiel ist derzeit Frankreich gegen Argentinien in 7,3 % der Simulationen; gefolgt von Spanien gegen Argentinien und Deutschland gegen Argentinien. Argentinien hat den Pot in sage und schreibe 18,1 % der Simulationen gewonnen, Frankreich folgt mit 16,1 %. Interessanterweise wird Brasilien mittlerweile in 9,5 % aller Fälle als Sieger prognostiziert, womit das Land weit entfernt auf dem dritten Platz liegt. Bonusgrafik Nr. 13 zeigt den Verlauf des Turniers für die fünf Teams, die jetzt als Sieger am meisten favorisiert sind.

    Das favorisierte Spiel im Achtelfinale? Frankreich gegen Deutschland in 68(!!)% aller Simulationen. Der Sieger dieses Spiels hat ziemlich gute Chancen, ins Finale zu kommen.

    Die aktuelle durchschnittliche Leistung für den schlechtesten dritten Platz, der in die K.o.-Runde vordringt, liegt bei 3 Punkten und einem GD von -4.

    Von EmotionalBaby9423

    Share.
    View 13 Comments

    13 Kommentare

    1. EmotionalBaby9423 on

      R3:

      Python + Plotly:
      I wrote a script to simulate 100,000 world cups in Python based on most recent full-time results.
      The visualization itself is created via plotly and comes with a fully interactive html. Please reach out with any questions and/or concerns!

      Data Availability:
      I used a mix of power rankings I found online (including FIFA world rankings, the Athletic, and others) to create my own ranking. Ultimately the input data is hardcoded (which I should rightfully be crucified for).

    2. anhospital on

      I like these graphs. Not seeing all the teams in the final graph though. Would be cool to see how the number of potential timelines has changed too.

    4. flamingoman on

      This is brilliant. Understandable at a glance fun to deep dive. Good stuff bro this is why I joined this sub

    5. TheJaice on

      I’m trying to wrap my head around Group B. If Bosnia beats Qatar they would have 4 points and almost certainly a better goal differential than Qatar would with a win. I think the only explanation is an error in the data.

    6. Padawan_Ezra on

      In group G why is egypt not in the top row? It has highest probability of winning the group as well as qualifying. Which makes me assume you ordered them by expected placement. Is that right?

    7. Logene on

      How is group F Tunisia at 100% fourth? Can’t they theoretically get third if they win against Netherlands and Sweden loses against Japan by a wide margin?

    8. sang-froidian on

      This is awesome, thanks for the work on this. Few questions if you don’t mind. Mainly, what is the weighting on the final game Sims? Is it something like fifa ranking, eye test or were the two previous games used in any way to shape the Sim?

      With Canada advancing on a win or a tie, are the Swiss that favored for a win that they have a better chance of finishing first? Based on play so far I see Canada winning the group most likely.

      Inversely with Portugal and Colombia, despite their awful first game against Congo, I don’t see this Portuguese team losing or tieing to Colombia after their own performance vs Congo.

    9. mfb- on

      > The most favored matchup in the round of 16? France v Germany in 68(!!)% of all simulations.

      Germany already won its group. It is likely going to win against the third place of some other group, France is likely to win its group and then win against the third place.

      The remaining path to the tournament victory is the same for both, which means your model thinks France is very likely to win against Germany.

    10. fella85 on

      This is great, in group L. How does Ghana have 100% making it to the knock out from the third spot

    12. AccomplishedRatio960 on

      Bosnia Qatar odds don’t make sense no ? How can Qatar have more likelihood than Bosnia to finish 4th, yet more likelihood to go to the next round ?

    13. Flames57 on

      Fucking portugal had to give up the lead of the group and now it will be placed in the first half tree, along with Spain, France, Germany, Brazil.

      Jfc.

    Leave A Reply