Close Menu
    Daten

    [OC] Die Lücke zwischen Elon Musks angegebener Frist und dem tatsächlichen Liefertermin für neun Vorhersagen, die er letztendlich erfüllt hat

    Share.
    View 43 Comments

    43 Kommentare

    1. happybrowser88 on

      Tool: Python + Pillow. Data: I maintain [twoweeks.lol](http://twoweeks.lol), a tracker of every Elon Musk prediction sourced only to his own words — his tweets, on-stage remarks, and earnings calls, never a journalist’s paraphrase. These nine are predictions he did deliver, just late — each one checked against his actual statement and the real delivery date (e.g. „first SpaceX astronauts in about three years,“ WSJ interview April 2011 → Crew Dragon Demo-2, May 2020). Across the full set of 169 tracked predictions: 36 delivered, 74 missed or cancelled, 52 still pending. Of the ones he delivered late, the average slip is ~311 days. Every entry links its receipt — happy to defend any single one.

    2. Preform_Perform on

      You forgot the Tesla Semi. I’ve been following that, and it seems like every year its release gets pushed back 11 months.

    3. Tall-Log-1955 on

      Been waiting for 10 years for the cars to actually drive themselves. Waymo quietly delivered, while Elon loudly embarassed himself

    4. BKGPrints on

      Regarding the Falcon Heavy and the SpaceX astronauts to orbit in the Crew Dragon capsule, glad that they put priority of the safety and proving the technology over meeting a deadline.

    5. ChrisFromLongIsland on

      Its amazing someone one could make almost any of these claims and ever accomplish even of them. Sorry my rocket ships and global internet was a year or 2 late.

      You would not invest in the over valued Tesla or spacex but Musk has accomplished to this point almost more than anyone else on earth.

    7. sudomatrix on

      Well, he’s certainly an asshole, but that’s a much better list than what I’ve accomplished. So there is plenty to complain about with Musk but this isn’t one of them.

    9. JustLurkin89 on

      Love the reddit hate for the guy that’s gotten more done to advance humanity than anyone else that is currently alive.

    10. firecz on

      would be interesting if people could subscribe to individual predictions, to get a mail on it’s due date/fulfillment/cancelling, and from that, making a list of predictions people most care about (most subscribed to)

    11. jtho78 on

      He said he would give $6 billion to end world hunger but never followed through. That was 4 years and 7 months ago

    15. christopher_mtrl on

      Where’s the Tesla Taxi mode that has been supposed to transform your car in a money making tool while you sleep ? It was „6 month away“ 3 or 4 years ago ?

    16. ImTay on

      Never forget Musk also promised to end world hunger if the UN showed him how it could be done for 6 billion dollars, but never donated anything after they showed him their plan.

    18. Sam-Starxin on

      Now do all the shit he promised and still hasn’t delivered.

      I’ll help you get started, still waiting on that Roadster.

    20. sirithx on

      I love these vibecoded single-subject websites (and no disrespect intended if you actually hand coded this). Great use of AI and informative to boot

    21. bokuWaKamida on

      crazy that elon musk can predict their first astronaut to orbit more accurately than DeutscheBahn predicts their train arrival times

    22. xia03 on

      hmm so who else delivered anything on this scale with or without the delay? other than the OP building a bar chart on reddit with 4,5,6 and 7 mo bars having the exact same length of course 😜

    24. Imaginary_Ad_9360 on

      Having worked as a PM on large capital projects, a delay of 12 months is tough but survivable. 4 years + delay is when you get terminated, hopefully without cause

    26. YaThatAintRight on

      FSD driving me to work while sleeping. Undelivered and I paid for that in 2019

    28. rethinkingat59 on

      Visionaries predictions are often out over their skies, it is the norm. If you want predictably talks to people in mature industries.

    29. _whydah_ on

      Sorry, but most of this is still a wildly impressive list of accomplishments, even if he didn’t hit the original promised date. I feel like this is Reddit, so we’re all supposed to talk about how crappy he is, but really, this list feels like it shows that he is a once couple hundred years sort of talent that has single-handedly pushed humanity forward.

    30. tigole on

      I think in 2017, he said FSD would be able to drive itself coast to coast by the end of the year. If you allow for a human needing to be there to plug in, then I guess that was achieved this year, so 9 years late?

    35. odubik on

      You can’t put a list like this without including ALL of the things he has promised and COMPLETELY failed on…
      I’ll kick off a few:
      Bulletproof windows in Cybertruck…
      FSD in 6 months for over a decade…
      People on Mars in 10 years, 14 years ago…

    36. balonart on

      It’s reminiscent of Greta’s & Al Gore’s promise the ice caps would be melted and Florida underwater a decade ago.

    37. roofilopolis on

      I’ll get downvoted to oblivion for this, but this guy is literally changing and advancing the world, but because he took longer than he said people act like he’s a failure who’s scamming everybody. The guy is the reason EVs are where they’re at. Anybody who actually drives current FSD knows it’s absolutely incredible and nobody else is close to its capability. Space travel is advancing.

      I don’t care about the guy. I’m not some Elon Stan. I’m not a Tesla bro or a conservative. The reality is when he aligned himself with the Republican Party all the sudden none of this mattered anymore. you guys sound like absolute morons.

    38. Sea-Sir2754 on

      I feel like this way undersells the fact that most of what he promises and gives hard deadlines for literally never happens at all.

    39. VQV37 on

      Better late than never I guess. I’m still impressed by much of the products that he and his company have delivered. Even if it is sometimes very late.

    40. beerbrained on

      Still no true fsd, and his plans for Mars will likely never happen. He promised a city of 1 million people lol.

    42. IGingerbreadman on

      He’s delivered FSD? That is still in in alpha testing right? It’s a joke honestly and they’re not solving it. What we need is regulation against it. They still cause terrible accidents.

    Leave A Reply