Die stille Neuausrichtung der Türkei

Gönül Tol argues that Turkey is moving back toward NATO and the West after years of closer ties with Russia. Economic troubles, reduced Russian influence in Syria, and growing security threats have convinced Ankara that its interests are better served through cooperation with Europe and the United States. Turkey has cut some economic and energy dependence on Russia, approved Sweden’s NATO membership, strengthened defense cooperation with allies, and sought alternatives to Russian military systems. While Turkey still values strategic autonomy, Tol contends that its economy, security, and defense industry remain fundamentally anchored to the West, making its recent shift a significant gain for NATO and a setback for Russia.

Turkey economically implodes if they lose access to the EU market. Everything else is irrelevant.