[Original content] Es wird prognostiziert, dass die GOP durch gesetzgeberische Neuverteilung der Wahlbezirke +8 bis +10 Sitze im US-Repräsentantenhaus erhalten wird, sobald die neuen Kongresspläne fertiggestellt sind.
Geografisch gesehen konzentrieren sich die meisten prognostizierten GOP-Zuwächse auf die Bundesstaaten des tiefen Südens, die eine lange Geschichte von Rechtsstreitigkeiten im Zusammenhang mit dem Stimmrechtsgesetz haben. Einige der wichtigsten Sitzplätze stammen aus Bezirken, die zuvor zur Vertretung der Schwarzen gegründet wurden (z. B. TN, AL und LA). Rechtliche Herausforderungen können dennoch dazu führen, dass einige Karten zunichte gemacht werden.
Quellen, die zur Untermauerung dieses Diagramms verwendet wurden:
| Zustand | Überschrift | Warum | Datum | Auswirkungen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nettoauswirkung | +8 bis +10 GOP-Sitze | |||
| Texas | Abbott unterzeichnet Texas-Karte als Gesetz (Texas Tribune) | Der Gesetzgeber hat die Karte neu gezeichnet | 29. August 2025 | +5 GOP-Sitze |
| Ohio | Ohio-Kommission verabschiedet Karte des Kongresses (Ohio Capital Journal) | Der Gesetzgeber hat die Karte neu gezeichnet | 31. Okt. 2025 | 0 bis +2 GOP-Sitze |
| Kalifornien | Kalifornien verabschiedet Prop 50 und fügt etwa 5 demokratische Sitze hinzu (CalMatters) | Vom Wähler genehmigte Karte | 4. November 2025 | +5 Demokratische Sitze |
| North Carolina | Richter erlauben NC-Karte, GOP einen weiteren Sitz zu geben (PBS) | Der Gesetzgeber hat die Karte neu gezeichnet | 26. November 2025 | +1 GOP-Sitz |
| Utah | Der Oberste Gerichtshof von Utah hält an der demografischen Ausrichtung fest (AP) | Das Gericht hat die vom Wähler genehmigte Karte durchgesetzt | 21. Februar 2026 | +1 Demokratischer Sitz |
| Missouri | Gericht in Missouri bestätigt von Trump unterstützte Neuverteilung der Bezirksverteilung (AP) | Der Gesetzgeber hat die Karte neu gezeichnet | 19. März 2026 | +1 GOP-Sitz |
| Virginia | Virginia stimmt der Umverteilung zu und verschafft den Demokraten einen Vorsprung (BBC) | Vom Wähler genehmigte Karte | 21. April 2026 | +4 Demokratische Sitze |
| Tennessee | GOP-Karte von Tennessee löscht mehrheitlich schwarzen Bezirk (Yahoo) | Der Gesetzgeber hat die Karte neu gezeichnet | 7. Mai 2026 | +1 GOP-Sitz |
| Virginia | Oberster Gerichtshof lehnt Angebot der VA-Demokraten zur Wiederherstellung der Karte ab (WSJ) | Gericht blockierte vom Wähler genehmigte Karte | 15. Mai 2026 | +4 GOP-Sitze |
| Florida | Richter in Florida bestätigt neue GOP-Karte (Washington Examiner) | Der Gesetzgeber hat die Karte neu gezeichnet | 26. Mai 2026 | +4 GOP-Sitze |
| South Carolina | SC-Senat lehnt Trumps Vorstoß zur Neuziehung ab (PBS) | Der Gesetzgeber hat es versäumt, eine Neufassung vorzunehmen | 26. Mai 2026 | Keine Änderung |
| Louisiana | Louisiana verabschiedet Karte zur Löschung des Black District (Yahoo) | Der Gesetzgeber hat die Karte neu gezeichnet | 29. Mai 2026 | +1 GOP-Sitz |
| Alabama | Oberster Gerichtshof erlaubt Alabamas republikanische Karte (Yahoo) | Gerichtlich erzwungene Karte | 2. Juni 2026 | +1 GOP-Sitz |
Von mediadotgames
37 Kommentare
I hate it here
Um. Is that a map of the Confederate states?
It looks pretty close to a map of the Confederate states.
Ohio really is the outlier, i propose eliminating the state, have it be incorporated into michigan and invalidate all their republican decisions.
It’s probably going to end up being +3 gain for the GOP, not +10. 2-3 of those Texas seats won’t flip, same with 2 of those Florida seats, neither of the Ohio seats will likely flip, and a Virginia seat was about to flip anyway
So for the GOP, it’s TX+2, FL+2, TN+1, MO+1, AL+1, LA+1, and NC+1 for 9 flips in total. CA, VA, and UT combine for 6 (one of the CA districts was going to flip anyway)
So net GOP+3
Texas will not be +5, the Abbottmander assumes that the GOP improves on its 2024 performance, Texas GOP is dulu and over confident. Its going to be +3 or +2 GOP instead, with at least 2 blue RGV districts holding.
Florida is not going to be +4, more like +3 or less
Regardless of all the Republican redistricting (which was more effective in safe republican states like Missouri & Tennessee etc) – Democrats are still favored to take back the house.
You know who didn’t win? American voters
Virginia can’t but the rest can.
Bullshit.
When politicians can pick the voters rather than the other way around there is no real democracy.
The thing about gerrymandering is that it spreads its preferred voter base thin. While these red states may have redistricted to have hypothetically more seats won by the GOP, the margin of those hypothetical wins is much smaller, so it becomes much easier to flip them to the democrats. So, in other words, all this redistricting may bite them in the ass big time.
A bunch of this gerrymandering diluted reliably red districts as to make them much less reliably red, a small shift in the voting trends in these new districts could actually backfire on the Republicans.
Crazy that SC of all places shot down their redistricting plans, for once it’s our neighbors embarrassing themselves
Kalshi betting app won the redistricting fight
I only hope that them thinning out other districts tip the more redder ones bluer to the point this plan backfires spectacularly. But this is America. Nothing good happens here.
Not a fair fight when you’ve got the Supreme Court putting a finger on the scale constantly.
I remember I was checking in on r/conservative a while back and they were talking about how great it was that the republican party was gerrymandering.
I can tell you who lost this bull shit. The United States of America. This shit makes The USA look stupid and childish.
The shift in Utah is not the result of state legislators gerrymandering the districts either by republicans or democrats rather it is the result of a proposition that was passed by popular vote going into effect that undid prior and prevents future gerrymandering. The republican legislators in this state are trying to do everything they can to prevent this from going into effect.
I hate when both sides race to the bottom. We see this in the games around picking federal judges too. It’s like a contest of who can go lower each round
Those heavy red districts still rely on sub 40% turnouts to stay red. Even Gerrymandered a high turnout election could still flip „safe“ districts. The woe is us posts probably help the districts staying red by discouraging participation. Its obviously an uphill battle, but not lost until we lose it.
Florida’s Supreme Court is a joke. They are violating their state constitution.
Our system is a joke and the sooner people realize the illegitimacy of the US Government, the better.
We can only hope that Republicans are so incompetent that they screwed this up and stretched their base too thin. There is some data that suggests by using the Trump coalition they may be brining in „soft electorate“ such as southern border counties of mostly Latino heritage and farmers that are not too pleased. Plus with the screw worm killing cattle because of cuts Republicans are directly linked too, we will see…
but also, fuck mid-decade redistricting and fuck politicians picking their voters.
Shouldn’t Indiana also be gray?
I’m just surprised that there’s enough political competition within Utah to warrant even an additional Democratic seat.
SCOTUS won it for the GOP
Louisiana can be such a disappointment. I’ve written my „representatives“ to remind them how chickenshit they are for backing the most geriatric criminal in US politics.
Super fair system we have right guys
Can we not just get some fresh parties
America corrupt AF lmao
The texas one could be surprisingly competitive since all their R districts went down to around +5 or +8
No more playing nice. WHEN democrats retake power, all of these thugs that violated their state supreme courts need to be taken to court. Gerrymandering needs to be banned nationwide. There’s absolutely no excuse for politicians being able to make themselves immune to the consequences of their actions by avoiding their voters
Still won’t matter
I hate the political system in the US.
Every single districr should be gerrymandered. Gerrymandered so there is no safe seat. Every district every election competitive
Thanks in no small part to John Roberts, the Grand Wizard of the Supreme Court
All this work to still get blown out in midterms in every single competitive district.
The main problem that the Democrats faced in this case was the fact that they still believe that they should obey the orders of courts when told that they can’t do something.
Virginia is the quintessential example of this. When the Republicans did essentially what Virginia did in Ohio and the state Supreme Court told them that they couldn’t do that, they just ignored the state Supreme Court and did it anyways and nobody stopped them because the courts have no power to enforce their rulings without the backing of the executive branch.