Die Ukraine hat den Krieg mit Russland gewonnen, sagen pensionierte US-Generäle, während der ukrainische Oberbefehlshaber sagt, dass über 230 Quadratmeilen zurückerobert wurden
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-winning-war-russia-retired-us-generals/
8 Kommentare
Ukraine certainly hasn’t won yet, and we can expect another year of grisly warfare at minimum. But for the first time in awhile, they’re actually gaining ground, and not via unrepeatable „thunder runs“ either. Russia is so beaten-down that they’re genuinely losing an attritional war, something that has never been seen before in history.
Ukraine has adapted to modern drone warfare faster than Russia and it shows on the battlefield. They are producing drones in huge numbers and the quality keeps getting better. These drones are hitting supply lines, fuel depots, ammo dumps, ships, refineries, and even targets deep inside Russia.
Russia is still relying on older tactics and older equipment. Ukraine is fighting a different kind of war now. When your trucks, fuel, and ammunition are getting destroyed every day, it becomes very hard to keep an army moving.
The retired U.S. generals in the article are saying the same thing. Ukraine is gaining ground, taking back territory, and putting real pressure on Russian logistics. That is what winning looks like in a modern war.
I think Russia won’t lose, but only in the same sense that the US ‘didn’t lose’ in Iraq. They were able to present it as the end of their mission (ditto Afghanistan), leaving on their own terms, but in reality they were forced out.
With Putin, I think we are just waiting for the moment that he accepts that there is no longer any room for an improvement in Russia’s military/political position- that waiting another month, quarter, year etc, will only result in them being in a weaker position than they were at the beginning of that time period.
If (big if) Ukraine retains the ability to keep up these 3-level attacks;
1) very high casualty rates along the front lines, with minimal (or net negative) movement of those lines.
2) continual, attritional destruction of mid-sized logistics bases, transport nodes, fuel and arms dumps in the immediate rear, to the extent that Russia cannot build up a critical mass of men and materiel for one last push, à la Germany 1917.
3) regular destruction of the major sources of Russia’s wealth (oil refineries and pipelines essentially) at a rate faster than they can repair them
… then Putin will really have no choice but to negotiate and must be prepared to make concessions. I just hope it happens quickly, but I’m not holding my breath.
Killing generals and sinking smallish ships in the Black and Caspian seas is a nice bonus, and adds to the pressure IMHO, but I doubt it will make a critical difference. Hopefully I’m wrong and those screws can be tightened too.
„Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.“ Churchill
Ukraine is not yet winning. They are rather, gaining the upper hand.
The tide has turned
Slava Ukraini. Im so glad to see those scumbags being pushed back. What a terrible war, for terrible reasons. I can only remain hopeful.
The fact they’ve held on for this many years and there’s been, so far, no sign of a summer push tells me they’re doing really well but I wouldn’t call it over just yet.