As much as i would like it but id say at this point its still wishful thinking.
There are ares where Ukraine gains territory but there are ares where the russians amass a lot of material and mainly soldiers that try to infiltrate with lots of small groups to form a big attack once enough are behind the lines.
jivatman on
The difference between now and 1917 is the people constituting the enlisted-level soldier are kind of the lowest level of society. They don’t have a substantial number of educated people able to have an informed ideology and start a revolution.
In another way though, this is actually a problem for Russia, who, in an increasingly technology-dominant war, really needs more skilled people, but they don’t want to join because they can be converted to assault troops if their commander gets drunk and angry one night.
Cultural_Gur_7441 on
This both motivating, but also dangeeous.
Russian army or state might _not_ collapse any time soon. Especially not by itself, Ukraine needs to make them to collapse.
Dihedralman on
It’s possible if their logistics collapse for a period of course which can shatter the front line in a region, but let’s first wait for them Ukraine to take land up to their more fortified defenses. Their offense had them quickly building out defenses as they move forward. Actually properly digging out entrenched positions is going to be hard anywhere near the front line.
There are some gains that can be acquired up to that point. But Russia need less manpower in entrenched areas.
If the logistics problem is systemic. Yeah it can get real bad for Russia.
dopealope47 on
Slava Ukraini!
TrotskyTMBO83 on
Problem is how big of a schism between Command and Active Frontline officers/ NCO will be once relief reserves are exhausted?
MediumKoala8823 on
Crimea really feels like it’s going to be the end to me. They don’t need to storm it. Just establish a level of inevitability like they did with Kherson City.
Riptide360 on
Orc rebellion!
letdogsvote on
Golly what a darn shame that would be.
pronounclown on
Sorry but from my pov „news“ or opinion pieces like these do more harm than good. We have seen these sensational titles since the start of the war and it gets jarring.
AlexFromOgish on
Air power and unmanned vehicles are great, but even if Russian lines collapse Ukraine will need a lot more soldiers and increased logistical resources in order to take and hold the 1991 borders. And even then a regrouping Russia can attack those same logistical lines in a renewed offensive as long as the Russian political structure remains in control. I’m not convinced getting rid of Putin will make a difference. The entire machinery around the man has to go away.
At some point, we need to see Ukrainian allies send regular units to back up Ukraine’s courageous but weary forces.
GoingInNaked on
Can you picture AFU entering Moscow. Oh what a sight to see.
KoriJenkins on
I could see the southern front collapsing due to the logistics strain, but it’s hard to see the same happening in the east. It’s a lot easier for them to move supplies there.
amonlb on
Just like Soviet Union…
Itburns12345 on
Hard to say
Manpower continues to be a growing issue BUT
Russian logistics is collapsing whereas ukraines ammo+ Weapons contine to grow!
More artillery ammo, more hammer and jdams, more mid range drones and missles, more fpv and interceptor drones, more jets incomming
Europe hasnt even finished some of the pro ukraine projects its go brewing for missles , drones etc
19 Kommentare
Slowly, slowly all at once
As much as i would like it but id say at this point its still wishful thinking.
There are ares where Ukraine gains territory but there are ares where the russians amass a lot of material and mainly soldiers that try to infiltrate with lots of small groups to form a big attack once enough are behind the lines.
The difference between now and 1917 is the people constituting the enlisted-level soldier are kind of the lowest level of society. They don’t have a substantial number of educated people able to have an informed ideology and start a revolution.
In another way though, this is actually a problem for Russia, who, in an increasingly technology-dominant war, really needs more skilled people, but they don’t want to join because they can be converted to assault troops if their commander gets drunk and angry one night.
This both motivating, but also dangeeous.
Russian army or state might _not_ collapse any time soon. Especially not by itself, Ukraine needs to make them to collapse.
It’s possible if their logistics collapse for a period of course which can shatter the front line in a region, but let’s first wait for them Ukraine to take land up to their more fortified defenses. Their offense had them quickly building out defenses as they move forward. Actually properly digging out entrenched positions is going to be hard anywhere near the front line.
There are some gains that can be acquired up to that point. But Russia need less manpower in entrenched areas.
If the logistics problem is systemic. Yeah it can get real bad for Russia.
Slava Ukraini!
Problem is how big of a schism between Command and Active Frontline officers/ NCO will be once relief reserves are exhausted?
Crimea really feels like it’s going to be the end to me. They don’t need to storm it. Just establish a level of inevitability like they did with Kherson City.
Orc rebellion!
Golly what a darn shame that would be.
Sorry but from my pov „news“ or opinion pieces like these do more harm than good. We have seen these sensational titles since the start of the war and it gets jarring.
Air power and unmanned vehicles are great, but even if Russian lines collapse Ukraine will need a lot more soldiers and increased logistical resources in order to take and hold the 1991 borders. And even then a regrouping Russia can attack those same logistical lines in a renewed offensive as long as the Russian political structure remains in control. I’m not convinced getting rid of Putin will make a difference. The entire machinery around the man has to go away.
At some point, we need to see Ukrainian allies send regular units to back up Ukraine’s courageous but weary forces.
Can you picture AFU entering Moscow. Oh what a sight to see.
I could see the southern front collapsing due to the logistics strain, but it’s hard to see the same happening in the east. It’s a lot easier for them to move supplies there.
Just like Soviet Union…
Hard to say
Manpower continues to be a growing issue BUT
Russian logistics is collapsing whereas ukraines ammo+ Weapons contine to grow!
More artillery ammo, more hammer and jdams, more mid range drones and missles, more fpv and interceptor drones, more jets incomming
Europe hasnt even finished some of the pro ukraine projects its go brewing for missles , drones etc
Hi
[https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-a-russian-army-collapse-might-look-like-ukraine-drones-logistics-war-ukraine-zelensky-putin](https://www.thebulwark.com/p/what-a-russian-army-collapse-might-look-like-ukraine-drones-logistics-war-ukraine-zelensky-putin)
Please yes for everyone’s sake collapse Russian Army COLLAPSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!