Ein tröstlicher kosmischer Mythos besagt, dass es auf der Erde noch 5 Milliarden Jahre dauern wird, bis die Sonne stirbt und unseren Planeten verschlingt. Aus astrobiologischer und atmosphärenphysikalischer Sicht ist unsere Zeitachse jedoch viel kürzer. Wenn die Sonne Wasserstoff zu dichterem Helium verschmilzt, zieht sich ihr Kern zusammen, die Temperatur steigt und die Fusionsrate steigt bla bla bla … wir alle wissen das, aber wenn wir das Standard-Sonnenmodell (Gough 1981) verwenden, nimmt die Leuchtkraft der Sonne alle Milliarde Jahre um etwa 10 % zu.
Durch Einbindung dieser Leuchtkraftsteigerung in das Kopparapu et al. (2013) Parametrisierungen bewohnbarer Zonen können wir genau abbilden, wann die Erde kritische Schwellenwerte überschreitet:
- 1 Milliarde Jahre (Feuchtes Gewächshaus): Die 10-prozentige Leuchtkrafterhöhung dehnt die Troposphäre aus und drückt Wasserdampf an der Kühlfalle vorbei in die Stratosphäre. Die UV-Strahlung der Sonne wird das H_2O dissoziieren und der leichte Wasserstoff wird dauerhaft in den Weltraum entweichen und die Ozeane ausbluten lassen.
- 2 Milliarden Jahre (Runaway Greenhouse): Da weniger Wasser zum Verwittern von Gesteinen und zur Bindung von CO_2 zur Verfügung steht, sammeln sich Treibhausgase an. Die Erdoberfläche wird schließlich die Venus nachahmen, die übrigen Ozeane zum Kochen bringen und über 400 °C erhitzen.
- 5 Milliarden Jahre (Roter Riese): Die Sonne dehnt sich aus und verschlingt schließlich die verbrannte Kruste.
Das obige Diagramm veranschaulicht die feste 1-AE-Umlaufbahn der Erde, die die vorrückenden Kopparapu-Grenzen schneidet.
Ich habe hier eine vollständige Aufschlüsselung der Gleichungen, der Ära des Kohlenstoffmangels und möglicher astrotechnischer Lösungen durchgeführt: Die Erde hat ca. Noch 1,1 Milliarden Jahre. Hier ist die Mathematik.
Von Budget-Ferret2662
29 Kommentare
**SOURCE:** Solar Luminosity Evolution: Gough (1981) relation $L(t) = \frac{L_0}{1 + 0.4(1 – t/t_0)}$.
* Habitable Zone Boundaries: Kopparapu et al. (2013, 2014) parameterizations for the moist and runaway greenhouse limits.
* The original papers are included in the Further Reading section below the article.
**Tool:** Python (NumPy for the array calculations, Matplotlib for the visualization).
**Methods & Data:**
The plot is generated by calculating the effective solar flux at the inner habitable zone boundary as a polynomial function of the stellar effective temperature, then mapping it against the time-dependent solar luminosity equation. You can read the full mathematical breakdown, see the step-by-step methodology, and explore the stratospheric water trap failure mechanics on my blog here: [https://www.thescientificdrop.com/2026/05/earth-has-approx-11-billion-years-left.html](https://www.thescientificdrop.com/2026/05/earth-has-approx-11-billion-years-left.html)
Very cool, it would bei intersting to See Mars in this plot.
Maybe by then DOGE will hit $1.
>our timeline is much shorter
only a scant 1.1 billion years. I think we’ve got time to work on problem solving. If we aren’t extinct or colonized outside our home solar system by then we don’t deserve to stick around.
I’m reasonably certain I won’t make it that long.
What’s this about „CO2 starvation event“?
It really puts it into perspective how special this place is by adding another dimension (time) to the rarity of habitable planets. If you’re looking for another planet to live, it has to have all the ideal conditions and those conditions will only exist in a narrow time band (at least narrow relative to the age of the universe). The perfect alternative to earth may not only millions of light years away, but also may already be gone (or maybe it isn’t ready yet).
5 year old me finding out the earth is going to die in a billion years
https://preview.redd.it/37hr6k4fvi3h1.png?width=320&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4b1457dfe9c8661f9ca1d02243b64023c3404c8
Whew, I got plenty of time
And the Falcons still won’t win a Super Bowl.
Afaik it will get terribly rough much earlier, when continents will come together to a super continent again which is about 200 million years from now..
_omg we are all gonna die_
^in ^1.1 ^billion ^years
So we just need to increase earths orbital velocity at a gentle pace.
> A comforting cosmic myth is that Earth has 5 billion years before the Sun dies and swallows our planet. But from an astrobiological and atmospheric physics perspective, our timeline is much shorter.
> Earth Has Approx. 1.1 Billion Years Left
Great, there goes my retirement plan..
Given that the Cambrian Explosion was only half a billion years ago, we’re still in the young half of our multicellular life.
Hypothetically, if we arranged some momentum transfer between Mars and Earth, could we end up with both planets in the habitable zone for the long term? It looks like we’d „only“ need to bring Earth up about 0.1 AU at a minimum, with 0.15 to 0.2 giving more margin. Bringing Mars down by a proportional amount (does it scale more or less directly with mass?) should put it well into the long term green zone.
Enough time left for GTA 6 to be released, hopefully..
So, what, we relocate to moon of Jupiter? Where does new habitability ring move to?
„Moist greenhouse effect“… You probably just sent some people over the edge.
why does this cause me anxiety
TLDR: I just found an org arguing that we have to burn more fossil fuels or the planet will be in danger in as little as about 10 million years…
Well I just went down a weird rabbit hole.
I started looking into the „CO2 Starvation Era“ shown in this graph. As shown it seems likely to be a reasonable mainstream geophysics topic (as shown – starting in half a billion years).
But if you google it, one of the top hits is [„140-million-year trend of dangerously decreasing CO2“](https://co2coalition.org/facts/140-million-year-trend-of-dangerously-decreasing-co2/) which has the wording
>For the last 140 million years, CO2 levels fell precipitously & steadily to within about 30 ppm of the 150 ppm “line of death” below which plants can’t survive…show an alarming downward trend toward CO2 starvation. The **release of carbon dioxide** by the use of fossil fuels **has allowed humanity to increase concentrations of this beneficial molecule**, and perhaps ***avert an actual CO2-related climate apocalypse***
published by an organization [The CO2 Coalition](https://co2coalition.org/) which purports to be trying to save us all from the deadly consequences of renewable energy – those deadly consequences being (from their own graph) that in as little as **10 million years** we’ll be in trouble if we don’t start burning more coal. They have a number of similar publications.
Their [2024 nonprofit filing](https://co2coalition.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2024-Form-990-Public-Inspection.pdf) shows they are a 501c3 with $4.5M in gross receipts, of which they report $1.4M from direct mail contributions, leaving $3.1M in undisclosed contributions. You may be shocked to find out that the former director was also a former CEO of the American Petroleum Institute.
We need to survive the next 50 years first.
I love thinking about the natural end of the earth and the possibility that we really are the only life in the solar system. How precious it all is, and how we’re choosing to squander that.
I was gonna do the dishes but now what’s the point
„in one point thirty-one jiga-years!“
Which cares? 1 billion or 5 million makes no difference. 1 billion years ago life on earth was single celled. Its an increasiboy long time.
Don’t worry, it’s been priced in
To put this in perspective.
If humans were knocked back to the stone age tomorrow and hand to spend the same amount of time redevolping.
We could only do that 220,000 times before the end of the world.
You’re acting like we won’t have already terraformed Mars by then.