As the War in Iran reaches its third month and heads into its fourth, there is a feverish push, orchestrated by the Gulf states of the Middle East, to get the United States (and Israel) to make a lasting peace with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Right now, it looks like those talks are stalling along two consistent points that neither the Americans nor the Iranians will abandon: the alleged nuclear materials that Iran either has or is developing, and ending Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is the Real Problem
Setting aside the issue of Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities (weren’t they “oblierated” last year?), Let’s focus on the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Americans, Arab states, and the rest of the world desperately want the Strait of Hormuz reopened and governed under the same parameters that it was before the war began.
But Tehran’s new leadership has different plans.
Sure, the new ayatollah of Iran (who is only in that role because we killed his father at the start of the Iran War) wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened because then Iran can move its oil and natural gas to its clients in places like China again. However, the new Iranian leadership wants the Strait reopened under its control.
Herein lies the source of the tension between the US and Iran in the current round of negotiations to end the war.
Neither side can agree on this.
The American position is unacceptable to Iran, and the Iranian position, naturally, is untenable for the Americans, the Arabs, and the wider world. This is not a deal either side can make. In fact, the only way the Iranians would return to the ex ante status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is if the American side made considerable concessions in other areas, such as sanctions relief.
kantzkasper on
strait of hormones.. yeah, straight up!
eilif_myrhe on
So the USA now aims for status quo antebellum and is yet failing to achieve that?
KindaStableGenius on
The Strait is now a gordian knot for the US. Nearly impossible to undo militarily, and nigh impossible to swallow concessions to untie diplomatically.
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As the War in Iran reaches its third month and heads into its fourth, there is a feverish push, orchestrated by the Gulf states of the Middle East, to get the United States (and Israel) to make a lasting peace with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Right now, it looks like those talks are stalling along two consistent points that neither the Americans nor the Iranians will abandon: the alleged nuclear materials that Iran either has or is developing, and ending Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is the Real Problem
Setting aside the issue of Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities (weren’t they “oblierated” last year?), Let’s focus on the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Americans, Arab states, and the rest of the world desperately want the Strait of Hormuz reopened and governed under the same parameters that it was before the war began.
But Tehran’s new leadership has different plans.
Sure, the new ayatollah of Iran (who is only in that role because we killed his father at the start of the Iran War) wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened because then Iran can move its oil and natural gas to its clients in places like China again. However, the new Iranian leadership wants the Strait reopened under its control.
Herein lies the source of the tension between the US and Iran in the current round of negotiations to end the war.
Neither side can agree on this.
The American position is unacceptable to Iran, and the Iranian position, naturally, is untenable for the Americans, the Arabs, and the wider world. This is not a deal either side can make. In fact, the only way the Iranians would return to the ex ante status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is if the American side made considerable concessions in other areas, such as sanctions relief.
strait of hormones.. yeah, straight up!
So the USA now aims for status quo antebellum and is yet failing to achieve that?
The Strait is now a gordian knot for the US. Nearly impossible to undo militarily, and nigh impossible to swallow concessions to untie diplomatically.