Coole neue Tool-Releases von einer sehr glaubwürdigen Quelle. Wie Sie sehen, zeigen die UN-Prognosen, dass 10 m nicht einmal passieren werden. Aber probieren Sie es selbst aus und sehen Sie, ob es Ihren Annahmen entspricht.
Ignorieren Sie nicht die Bevölkerungspyramide auf der rechten Seite. Sofern Sie sich nicht für extreme Einwanderungs- oder Fruchtbarkeitszahlen entscheiden, wird das Verhältnis von alten Menschen zu Menschen im erwerbsfähigen Alter bis zum Jahr 2100 dramatisch ansteigen. Das ist sehr wichtig.
https://ourworldindata.org/population-simulation-tool
Von icelandichorsey
10 Kommentare
The TFR in the graph is outdated. It’s currently 1.28
So doesn’t matter if voted yes or no as it won’t be relevant anyway? That’s a relief as yes vote is possible.
Don’t trust blindly an UN projection, just look at the past, you will see they are more wrong than right.
Note that this model is not tailored especially for Switzerland, and use the same methodology for most countries (so not taking into account the specific Swiss migration)
They explicitly write is not so good in that case:
> The biggest gaps were for very small territories and in countries whose populations are highly sensitive to migration flows
If you want to make it a bit more Swiss you can pump up the migration levels to 2010-2020 levels, it reaches 12-15 millions
To be honest, even rather minor changes do get us over 10 million.
Yeah, I wouldn’t trust this at all.
I’ll be honest here, after the overly dramatic numbers we’ve seen at the beginning of covid I don’t trust these projections anymore.
They may be based on statistics but still pretty much future telling.
There seems to be errors in the numbers for migration. For example, they put 5.1‰ net migration for 2023. In 2023, we were [8.96 millions](https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/population.assetdetail.36073961.html), there were [263 081 immigrations and 123 963 emigrations](https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/fr/home/statistiques/population/migration-integration.html). So a net migration of 139 118.
139 118 / 8 960 000 = 0.0155 = 15.5‰
There’s possibly something I’m misunderstanding here for such a massive difference, if someone can spot it …
(But if I’m not wrong and adjusting the sliders for that, we would easily go above 10 millions.)
Isn’t the reality that we are almost at 10 million already?
As of September last year (most recent number I found) we are at about 9.1 million, and the amount of all swiss nationals abroad is about 830.000, so we „have room“ for about 70k additional people, because the swiss population abroad has every right to come back at any point in time.
That’s a pretty tight margin for this artificial cap.
we won’t reach 15 million, as the world population is stagnating anyways, and we have a work immigration anyways, so it’s not like people will come here just to breathe our air
refugees only make up a small part