Nanos-Umfrage, Mai 2026: LPC 42 (-3), CPC 33 (-1), NDP 12 (+3)

Using the last five polls on 338Canada.

Liberals range from 43% to 48% with an average of 45%.
Tories range from 31% to 37% with an average of 34.2%.
The NDP range from 6% to 12% with an average of 9.6%.
The Bloc range from 6% to 7% with an average of 6.2%.
The Greens range from 2% to 4% with an average of 2.8%
The PPC range from 0% to 2% with an average of 1.2%

The NDP in the last three polls have had higher than 10%. Tories poll around 33%. Libs stay winning with more than 40%. The rest have very dead growth rates. With the greens polling their highest in the last five polls today.

Is the NDP just going to repeat „Carney is a Conservative,?“ Over and over again hoping people come back to them? Many people knew he was a blue Liberal/red Tory and outside of Reddit, that’s what a lot of people wanted. And yet Lori Idlout crossed the floor to the Liberals. By all indications, Carney and the Liberals are still popular.

The previous four Nanos polls:

Date | LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GRN
—|—|—-|—-|—- | —- | —-
May 8, 2026 | 45.5 | 33.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 3.5
May 1, 2026 | 44.8 | 32.0 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 3.4
April 24, 2026 | 44.6 | 32.0 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 3.5
April 17, 2026 | 45.8 | 31.5 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 3.5

For the most part, everyone is just bouncing around within the margin of error (MOE = 3.1%):

* At 42.3%, the LPC is down a little more than usual. The MOE is 3.1%, and the LPC went down 3.2% from last week. So it might be significant, but it is literally on the line.

* The NDP isn’t really surging as much as it is returning to its norm from the last month; they hovered around 12% for most of April.

* The CPC is actually slightly lower than last week’s result as they dropped from 33.4% to 32.7%.

[Full report from Nanos here](https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Political-Package-2026-05-15-KU2MP-FOR-RELEASE-1.pdf)