Follow-up zu meinem Beitrag zur Saisonalität der Fluggesellschaft. u/KibbledJiveElkZoo hat mich gebeten zu testen, ob Gold Sie tatsächlich schützt, wenn die Aktienkurse abstürzen. Deshalb habe ich es seit 2005 bei jedem größeren Marktcrash getestet.
was ich getan habe
Wir haben jeden größeren SPY-Rückgang seit 2005 untersucht und überprüft, was sich Gold im gleichen Zeitraum vom Höchststand bis zum Tiefststand entwickelt hat. Einfache Frage: Rettet Gold Sie, wenn die Aktien sterben?
Daten: GLD (Gold), SPY (S&P 500), TLT (20-jährige Staatsanleihen). alles über yfinance.
Ergebnisse
| Krise | Aktien (SPY) | Gold (GLD) | Staatsanleihen (TLT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFC (2007-09) | -55,2 % | +23,9 % | +25,1 % |
| Schuldenobergrenze (2011) | -18,6 % | +5,6 % | +34,6 % |
| China/Öl (2015-16) | -13,0 % | +2,9 % | +13,2 % |
| Ausverkauf im vierten Quartal (2018) | -19,3 % | +5,0 % | +4,5 % |
| COVID-Absturz (2020) | -33,7 % | -3,6 % | +14,2 % |
| Bärenmarkt 2022 | -24,1 % | -8,8 % | -31,2 % |
| Zollschock (2025) | -18,8 % | +1,6 % | +0,8 % |
Gold übertraf die Aktien in 7 von 7 Crashs. das ist ziemlich überzeugend
aber so einfach ist es nicht
Gold fiel in zwei dieser sieben Krisen ins Minus. Während der Corona-Krise wurde es zusammen mit allem anderen verkauft, weil die Mittel Bargeld brauchten. Im Jahr 2022 machten steigende Zinsen es kaputt, weil Gold keine Rendite abwirft
Außerdem wurde getestet, was sich Gold an den schlechtesten Tagen von SPY verhält (jeder Tag, an dem SPY über 20 Jahre um mehr als 2 % fiel). Gold war im Grunde flach. überhaupt keine Absicherung am selben Tag. Dafür waren Staatskassen viel besser geeignet
Ist Gold also ein sicherer Hafen?
* für langsame Krisen und lange Drawdowns: ja, ziemlich klar
* für schnelle Paniken, bei denen jeder alles für Bargeld verkauft: Nein
* bei täglicher Absicherung: nein
u/KibbledJiveElkZoo Sie haben es richtig verstanden, Gold ist wahrscheinlich nur in Krisen, die größer und langsamer sind als das, was wir normalerweise erleben, ein echter sicherer Hafen. Die GFC war ihr bester Moment. Covid war das Schlimmste
was soll ich als nächstes testen?
Code und Methodik: github.com/jsabazova/hunchtest
Quelle: Yahoo Finance über yfinance. Tool: Python (Pandas, Scipy, Matplotlib).
keine Finanzberatung. Ich mag es einfach, mit konventioneller Weisheit und unter Verwendung von Daten zu argumentieren
Von Aerhoespaceengineer
23 Kommentare
**Source:** Yahoo Finance via yfinance (GLD, SPY, TLT, IEF daily prices 2005-2025). Inflation data from BLS CPI-U.
**Tool:** Python (pandas, numpy, scipy, matplotlib). Full code: [github.com/jsabazova/hunchtest](http://github.com/jsabazova/hunchtest)
pretty wild how gold completely failed in covid when everyone was panicking but crushed it during the slow burn of 2008
How close do you think silver follows?
Gold is safe until it’s not. It is typically one of the first safe havens that investment managers go to when markets start to weaken. This rotation contributes to its outperformance during minor drawbacks. However, if conditions continue to deteriorate rapidly, asset managers then start to get margin called on the rest of their portfolio, and when they look at what they can sell to meet their obligations, it is often the gold holding that has run up 20% in the past month. This is why when the market takes a “second leg down,” gold will usually go with it.
One other interesting thing to look at is the initial dip in gold prices before major financial crises. It pretty reliably dips 10-25%. So perhaps it’s not necessary to buy and hold it all the time. You can wait until the liquidity dip early in the turmoil and/ or until a year or two after major money printing sprees and still capture most of the benefit.
Actually, analyzing whether this is true and **when** to enter gold would be interesting in case you’re still looking for a topic.
Gold is the only safe haven because that’s where the dollar was derived.
I’ve always heard bonds are inversely correlated to stocks, when taking in price and yield. But that hasn’t been my subjective experience. Maybe bonds are simply slower losers that continue to generate cash and therefore help during rebalancing. Can you test this conventional wisdom?
Bonus: if not bonds, what is the best asset that is inversely correlated to the market?
You look at change in gold price when stocks drop, but the other side of the coin is the price of stocks when gold price drops. Maybe stocks are a safe haven for gold price crashes.
From 2012 to 2016 gold price halved and stocks doubled.
Also cherry picking 2005 – 2025 makes gold look like a good investment, which it is not in general.
Just some nitpicking: you didn’t test if gold is a safe haven; you tested if it WAS.
but aside from 2022, treasuries significantly outperformed? so based on that data (which itself is recency biased) would you hedge in gold or stay with the general consensus of bonds given that only one moment in time seems to have come unstuck.
Gold will be worthless before some of you reading this have finished accumulating. True story. It is not in any way a rare element in our solar system, and reasonable projections for asteroid mining returns are in late 2040s. If you want a currency hedge just buy an international ETF. Gold is a shiny useless rock
This is great, I love this, my only problem with them is it only spans 20 years.
I did a similar analysis 20-ish years ago and my boss at the time said, „Ya, but our lifetime has been unique in the history of the behaviour“. I have come to believe that’s true. Each generation has its own financial and economic make up (tech, tools, finances, politics, etc.) which can create a cluster of behaviour in the short-term of 25 years.
I’d love to see analysis like this over 100 years … but (having done similar) get why we only do 20… where are you going to get 100 years of data!?
Anyway… very interesting. Thank-you.
Look at gems, my brother’s a goldsmith and he says the hems he has held onto have gone up way more than gold.
I would love to see a similar analysis with the Gold Miners.
Anyone calling gold a “safe haven” at all, should be tarred and feathered in the public square.
This data supports that, it serves its purpose but nothing is “safe”, you always have a risk of loss when you need to access your wealth.
If there were a such thing as a *truly* safe haven, billionaires would keep all their money there and it would be too expensive for mortal man. Because nothing is truly safe, the best you can do is what they do, diversify across what seem like the safest plays, and hope future performance is similar to past results.
People who actually understand numbers like this, should use their powers for good, and teach people to remove “safe haven” from their vocabulary.
What’s your recommended method of making graphs like these? I’m pretty decent with excel but I’ve been learning Python and it feels like I have so much further to go before I can actually do something useful with it. A financial modeling textbook of mine recommends R with Python, but I’m not sure.
This is great, but 20 years seems like a vert short period. Is there a reason you didn’t go back to 1971?
All you need to know now is when the stock will drop?
Something that stays flat in a massive crash is still a great hedge.
People keep saying gold is a good store of value because you could buy a suit in Roman times and today for the same amount of gold and similar stories.
It’s true that gold is much better than FIAT currency but the problem with gold is that, although it does hold value long term, the short term cycles of fluctuation can very well exceed the holder’s lifetime. Gold holds value over the EXTREME long term, so I don’t think it’s a good „practical“ store of value.
There is global demand for gold as jewelry which makes it a different kind of commodity.
I think Bitcoin stole some fire from gold as an asset.
Gold isn’t a hedge against fear. It’s a hedge against loss of confidence in the system. Big difference
When we were kids, or rather teenagers, we were taught to save 10% of our income. Out of those savings, 10% should always be kept in gold. Just hold onto it and… pray the price never actually starts going up.