Nach vier blutigen Jahren könnte sich der Krieg gegen die Ukraine zum Verhängnis für Putin entwickeln

The choices required to keep the war going into next year are lose lose

Basically they will have little choice but to start drafting conscripts to stand any chance of keeping the army alive. Theres good reason they’ve never done this and an unhappy population being forced into the army makes for an unhappy and rebellious army just as in 1917 and 1989, as well as a major admission to the elites his leadership is taking the country into greater and greater danger.

But thats not even why its lose lose. Don’t conscript, the army is basically going to collapse in 2027 and the war is already lost. Do conscript and the only way you can do that is to take men out of the economy which itself is reaching the beginnings of collapse. Take men out of the economy at the scale Russia needs and the economy will crash even faster. Economy crashes, mass unemployment so mass unrest which you’d have to send in your stretched and unhappy army to suppress. Even worse, economic collapse leading to collapse of supplies and money into the war economy, weapons and supplies at the front become scarce, Ukraine with their increasingly astonishing lethality then defeats Russia anyway.

Russia is running seriously short of road and time is very much against them, Ukraine have at least 2 clear routes to victory now which Russia is going to find very difficult changing the reality of.

It could have been one bloody year if Ukraine had been adequately supported by Europe and the US.

The debt that we owe Ukraine for what they’ve paid in blood can never be repaid.