Russland bricht neue Rekorde bei Truppenverlusten und kann diese nicht schnell genug ersetzen

New records… SO FAR!

But Russia is winning, according to pro-Kremlin bots.

70,000 a month in deaths and injury (from the Russian Defence Ministry) against 27,000 in recruits (from no less a source than the Russian Security Council). 70,000 is 10% of Russia’s entire army in Ukraine every month, naively that would spell the end of the Russian army in 10 months.

I always believed Ukraine would win after breaking the Russian economy. That hasn’t happened yet, instead Ukraine has reached such an awesome level of lethality that its quite clear that if Russia cannot respond their army is just going to stop existing, my naive maths a few weeks ago suggested it will half in size every 12 months and thats from 50,000 loses a month.

When the Russian economy does break, which should be coming around the end of the Summer when the banks start failing, Ukraine’s lethality will skyrocket again, the army will run out of supplies and weaponry as the state finds itself with an unfixable financial crisis and potentially the need to send troops into Russian cities, diverting them from the war.

Altogether Russia is facing not just the prospect of being forced into an economic failure by Ukraine and then defeat somewhere down the road, its looking at the destruction of its army within about 18 months even making optimistic recruitment assumptions along with Ukraine increasingly driving them right out of occupied areas. If its not now directly losing the war its months from it.

And Ukraine is only becoming more lethal as these new middle strike drones show.