Wie stark ist der kanadische Reiseverkehr in die USA zurückgegangen? Forscher vermuten, dass es mehr ist, als wir dachten

A decline in travel to the U.S. may be more significant than it first appeared, according to Canadian researchers.

Initial estimates based on border crossings from Canada into the U.S. suggested a decrease of about 25 per cent, wrote researchers from the University of Toronto, citing data from Statistics Canada.

Recent findings, argue researchers Karen Chapple, Yihoi Jung and Jeff Allen, suggest that this year-over-year analysis of crossings doesn’t provide the full picture.

The group instead looked at cellphone activity in major U.S. metropolitan areas, and said they found a median decline in visits of 42 per cent.

“This means that a) border crossing data is not capturing the full drop in Canadian business and trade-related travel and b) when Canadians travel to the U.S., they are visiting fewer locations and staying for less time than they used to,” wrote Chapple, Jung and Allen.

Which U.S. cities were most impacted?

Myrtle Beach, S.C., saw the biggest dip (65.4 per cent) in Canadian travel when comparing 2024-25 to 2025-26, according to the data.

The Florida cities of Panama City, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami, Naples and North Port are all in the top 10, as are Yuma, Ariz., Brownsville, Texas, and San Francisco. Major tourist destination cities and border-area cities also took hits, based on cellphone data.

The research suggests 50 major U.S. metropolitan areas saw decreases in travel from Canada of 50 per cent or greater in the examined timespan. Only three of the 267 cities examined saw travel increase: Portland, Ore.; Gainesville, Fla.; and Cleveland.

Behind the numbers

The trio with the University of Toronto’s School of Cities charted data as part of a project titled “Mapping Tariffs,” which aims to measure the fallout of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies, annexation threats and ensuing political tensions.

The data came from Canadian devices monitored between April 2024 and March 2026. To count as a trip, a phone had to stop in Canada, stop in the U.S., then stop back in Canada. More information and the data itself are available on the Mapping Tariffs page.

One of the differences is this data also accounts for freight traffic, which border-crossing estimates do not, researchers said.

They also noted that the data may include Canadians who were living in the U.S. temporarily and have moved back.

Remember when the trolls said the boycott was „just a reddit thing“ and not happening IRL?

I noticed my local Costco sells a lot less US products. It is wild.

Good!

I know in my household we would have gone to Florida at least once the past year as well as 5-10 day trips to shop.    Haven’t even crossed the border once and don’t plan to

I won’t even take a flight that CONNECTS in the US. Yes I’m petty. Tabarnac. 

I won’t even fly through the US anymore.

US citizen here. I didn’t recall a lot of Canadian travelers ever so I can’t comment on that, but I’m in the Midwest so not a destination anyway. Your boycott of US spirits has been super effective though. Million dollar losses to distillers.

I wish we were friends again, but I totally get why this is going on. Keep it up! Always a pleasure when we see y’all in Mexico!

I recently travelled through the US for my family holiday. I saw America at its best, from 40,000 feet on my direct flight to Costa Rica.

It’s one thing to boycott when you are trying to stick it to the USA on principal. It’s another when the scale tipped into the „genuinely unsafe and not worth the risk“ boycott.

I don’t understand how the drop can only be 25%. I moved to Canada in 2020 from the US and my family lives in the northeast so I go back a few times a year just to see them, plus family emergencies and funerals.

Since the start of the second Trump term, the once-slammed border crossings are now deserted. On the weekends, even in the dead of winter, it used to be at least a 15-20 minute wait at Peace bridge pretty much any time during daylight, even with most lanes open. Even longer in the summer.

Now? Even with only 2 lanes open, you drive right up, 0 wait. In the past year, I have only ever had one car in front of me 1-2 time in probably 10 trips, the rest I just drove right up. Empty.

It has to be way more than 25%.

I will get my Canadian passport soon. We used to live in US. We always talk about visiting NYC again once we get our passports. Now, that plan has been put on hold.

Havent gone for a few years now.

Not because of Trump, but because of inflation (both countries) and the exchange rate.

Most of us are pretty disgusted by the MAGAmites and their attitudes. Just don’t even wanna encounter those walking piles of shitty ideas really, so best to just avoid the states period.

I haven’t been across the boarder since Obama was in office. Mostly coincidental but I just have no reason to go over there at this point.

We planned a trip south and only picked places where we wouldn’t have an american layover 🤷‍♀️ dont even want to risk ending up there and being detained.

The article has an important caveat at the end:

>One of the differences is this data also accounts for freight traffic, which border-crossing estimates do not, researchers said.

Those „visitors“ don’t really count, do they? We *know* trade is down. The tariffs had an impact. What would it be without counting trucks?

I am a Canadian of Hispanic descent.

I don’t want to go to the states. I won’t go to the states, not even for work.

The chances of being denied entry are high. The changes of being deported after entry are non-negligible. The chances of being the victim of ICE is non-zero.

Fuck it. I’m not going back there until some massive fucking changes happen, and that’s not likely at all.

Never been, and certainly will never go ever if I have anything to do with it.