Nate Erskine-Smith verliert den Versuch, für die Ontario Liberals im Nominierungsrennen für Scarborough Southwest zu kandidieren
https://www.qpbriefing.com/news/nate-erskine-smith-loses-bid-to-run-for-ontario-liberals-in-scarborough-southwest-liberal
21 Kommentare
I think this probably hurts him in the broader OLP contest.
Another interesting wrinkle is that Carney made an endorsement of Nate, and that seemed to fail. Now, perhaps NES was facing a blowout, and Carney’s last-second intervention nearly saved him. After all, NES only lost by a little bit here.
But it could be a sign that Carney is starting to lose some of his shine.
19 votes.
It’s elections like these that are a reminder that in politics, every vote counts. Congrats to Ahsanul Hafiz. He had more pull than NES.
This will no doubt make it difficult to run for OLP leader, because the narrative for NES opponents is “if he can’t win a nomination riding, he can’t defeat Doug Ford”. Which sucks.
But considering how much the OLP establishment hates NES, going to great lengths to discredit him, I think he should run anyways. The OLP is in bad need for renewal. The old guard needs to go, as they will not continue to succeed electorally on their own merit, except solely relying on Ontarians getting tired of Doug Ford. This is not a strategy.
NES running continues to expose that the OLP is a party of insiders, and they do not want an outsider to ever lead them. Not sure if NES will overcome the barriers to keep him out, but I do think the situation makes it more known to partisan liberals what needs to change.
I guess this leaves the possibility that there won’t be a by election in BEY. NES seems really determined to leave federal politics however this won’t be the first time a politician quickly reverses course after seeing their prospect isn’t what they assumed to be.
Its weird watching federal NDP voters try to give provincal liberals advice on who they should nominate to win the next provincal election.
Come to the NDP, Nate.
We need more of his kind and he’s more at home with us than the bloodsucking Crombieite vampires.
The OLP is opportunistic at its core and if they can’t see that supporting a leader that is the polar opposite of the Del Duca and Crombie disasters is the recipe for success then they deserve to get trounced a third time by offering a milquetoast choice.
Yikes he’s already suggesting that the [vote was not fair](https://x.com/l_stone/status/2053241725921923171). Not a good look for him IMO.
Jubilant Martin Regg Cohn column incoming! NES didn’t help himself in a lot of ways, sure, but stunning to see how much the OLP brass want to hamstring the ambitions of a potential leader as if they have this deep bench of alternatives
The ONDP will clear in SSW. Nate was the only one that could have split the progressive vote. Hafiz won with international students and non eligible voters (elections Canada I mean). You can vote for the nomination even if you are not citizen
Maybe he just not that good at politics. At least no the part requiring building coalitions with connecting with the general public.
The OLP did everything they can to get this outcome because they didn’t want the chance of a progressive leader.
I hope Nate runs for the leadership still. I’ll definitely be signing up to vote for him. I think he can tap into the progressive majority that gave the OLP a decade of power before they stabbed progressives in the back by selling off Hydro One.
I thought I’d never vote OLP again after that but Nate’s authenticity and bold, progressive ideas won me over. If he isn’t the leader, the Ontario Liberals remain dead to me. I’ll keep voting Green or potentially give Marit Stiles a chance if she decides to finally bring forward some bold policy proposals.
Feels almost entirely self-inflicted by Nate at this point if I’m being honest (and this coming from somebody who likes him on policy and thought he would be a good federal or provincial Liberal leader at some point) He’s got good policy beats, but he seems to be terrible and politicking and needlessly burnt bridges across two different levels of government that he could have used to gradually build up a portfolio that would have given him a good shot at eventually party leadership etc. Even as an outsider with a strong personal brand, there’s various examples of leaders who rose to high positions in their own party against establishment candidates without isolating themselves politically the way that NES has. (Brian Mulroney and Pierre Trudeau both come to mind for Canada, Barrack Obama beating Hilary Clinton in 2008 is another example etc.)
It’s unfortunate, but it seems to be a story of personal hubris bringing down a promising candidate.
It was always going to be an uphill battle running against a Bangladeshi candidate in that Scarborough riding. The previous MPP was also Bangladeshi for reference.
So this man lost to a guy who has glorified capital punishment, posted links to rape and all.
Great stuff OLP!
I have a feeling this won’t be the end of this. I have never seen an establishment mobilize against a candidate this much – especially one who has such a high profile.
19 votes. 1400+ prospective voters rejected. I know NES is publicly questioning the outcome and normally I would disagree with that but given the amount of stuff going on between OLP and NES I don’t think I can blame him.
Not a Liberal. I’m fact I was a conservative partisan for years. And I know nominations are a different thing as opposed to a general election. But something doesn’t sit right here. There’s no way someone with his profile loses by that much. None. I’m not going to say he should have won as though it were a cakewalk but something is not on the up and up here. Also, I’ve seen NES in person. If the OLP seriously wants to go after Ford after how many elections, this guy should be a top contender for a leader.
Again, I don’t say this as a liberal supporter. But I say it as somebody who is seen a lot of the ins and outs of politics. This isn’t going to end here, and I suspect it won’t help the Liberal fortunes overall as they look to select their next leader.
It’ll be a shame to see Doug Ford sail to another majority because of petty infighting. That guy’s got a horseshoe up his backside or something.
This probably makes it easier for the ONDP, whose leader has recently garnered some good press and seems to be taking to heart the advice that greater visibility and memorability is the way to go. 1.75, if not more, thumbs up from the West Coast.
How has he not dropped out of the leadership race already? It just shows his continued lack of political IQ and self awareness. If he can’t even win the Liberal nomination in his home riding, how does he have any viable path to being leader?
I think the OLP dodged a bullet – Erskine-Smith isn’t a team player, he’s an ideologue, and that just doesn’t play out well as leader of a party that needs to build a broad electoral coalition to win.
Someone plz explain to me why the Party brass hates this guy? He seems like a well spoken, reasonable person from the little I know about him. Waaaaay more electable and charismatic than Crombie and Del Ducca combined.
Nothing too surprising here, this was the result people who have been following the race should have expected. Hafiz has been running a campaign since January and clearly has significant influence within the community. Anything less than a 10 point victory for the OLP in the by-election would be a disappointment.
This basically spells an end of NES’s leadership run, since even if he does run he clearly has no chance of winning, given that the leadership race is fairly similar to a nomination race.
I think it’s fair to say that much of the OLP establishment was working against NES here, but if he can’t even beat them here, what chance does he have of beating Ford. And why would he want to lead a caucus that clearly hates him.
And good riddance to Qadira Jackson, she’s shown herself to be extremely toxic during this race, and hopefully she isn’t involved with the party in the future.
Unless my memory is tricking me NES got a ton of hype while JT was still in office, so either a lot of pundits were off, or his stock has crashed hard.
Look, running in SSW was a bold move on the part of Erskine-Smith to begin with – a great idea on paper to position himself for the leadership but I think he may have underestimated the execution of pulling this off against at least some hostile elites in the Ontario Liberal Party, and frankly, running as an outsider in a riding with a relatively sizeable dispora group (that of course he is not a part of) that can be mobilized.
The fact that he still came within 19 votes given those factors is pretty good. Perhaps it speaks to his political acumen that he decided to go for it a riding like that instead of waiting for a riding where those factors aren’t at play (like Beaches, his home riding, or really any other urban core Toronto riding) – but he jumped in.
I imagine this will ding him a bit in the OLP leadership race should he stay in, but I think it could be valuable to have him in the race to add some more excitement and keep it from becoming a Navdeep Bains coronation.