Oxford-Analyse: Das Erreichen der Netto-Null-Ziele in Großbritannien wäre mit „minimalen Kosten“ verbunden und würde 250.000 Arbeitsplätze schaffen

New research from the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford has revealed that achieving the UK’s 2030 net zero targets will come at a minimal cost to the economy and the public. This transition is expected to bring significant benefits, including the creation of 250,000 jobs and substantial savings for households.

The analysis, titled [„Getting a Good Deal on Net Zero,“](https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/Getting-a-Good-Deal-on-NetZero.pdf) indicates that the UK could meet its net zero goals with an annual public sector investment of £6-8 billion. This investment is expected to deliver a balanced mix of policies focused on transforming the transport, building, and power sectors, benefiting households and the broader economy.

Dr. Anupama Sen, co-author and Head of Policy Engagement at the Smith School, highlighted that the total annual investment needed from public and private sectors is around 0.7-1% of GDP. „This equates to £5-£7 a week – the cost of two cups of coffee – per person per year, while vulnerable households could be protected from any additional costs at all,“ Dr. Sen explained. Inaction, however, could cost significantly more, with estimates reaching 3.3% of GDP by 2050.

The analysis shows that low-carbon investments, such as heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs), can reduce overall costs for consumers over their lifetimes compared to fossil fuel technologies. A well-coordinated transition in the household sector could lead to net savings of up to £380 annually for households with one car and a heat pump.

Additionally, the report estimates that the total economy-wide investment needed until 2030 is about 25% higher than current policies, amounting to approximately £30-40 billion a year. However, the lower operating costs of net zero technologies could save around £12-15 billion annually, reducing the total required investment to £18-25 billion per year.

Dr. Sen emphasized the importance of considering the long-term savings from low-carbon technologies. „A focus on only the initial costs of adoption denies households and businesses significant savings that low-carbon technologies offer,“ she said, highlighting the benefits of replacing aging boilers or vehicles with modern, efficient alternatives.

The [government’s recent press release](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-overachieves-another-carbon-emissions-target-and-rejects-rollover) echoes these findings, showcasing the UK’s success in reducing emissions. The UK has halved its emissions since 1990 while growing its economy by around 80%. The decision not to carry forward surplus emissions reductions into the next carbon budget period aligns with the advice of the independent Climate Change Committee and underscores the UK’s commitment to its climate targets.

Energy Security and Net Zero Minister Justin Tomlinson remarked, „By deciding not to carry forward our over-performance from the third carbon budget, we are doubling down on our goal to reach net zero, and we’re already halfway there. This will keep the UK at the forefront of global efforts to cut its emissions while driving down consumer bills.“

Sam Fankhauser, co-author and Professor of Climate Economics at the Smith School, stressed the urgency of timely investments. „Investment decisions need to be made soon to avoid raising the costs of climate change for both households and the planet. The consistent implementation of climate targets will make the difference between meeting the Paris objectives or condemning the planet to increasingly dangerous climate change,“ he stated.

The transition to net zero is not just about environmental responsibility; it also promises economic benefits, including job creation and cost savings. With a pragmatic approach and timely investments, the UK can continue to lead global efforts in reducing emissions while ensuring economic stability and growth.