Die Polizeigewalt in den USA war tendenziell höher, wenn die monatlichen Durchschnittstemperaturen 20,3 °C (68,5 °F) überstiegen. In Gebieten mit mehr als 5 Millionen Einwohnern und weniger als 50 mm Niederschlag war jeder zusätzliche Temperaturanstieg um 1 °C mit einem Anstieg der durch Polizeigewalt verursachten Todesrate um 2 % verbunden.
High temperatures are linked to slightly increased rates of police violence
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High temperatures are linked to slightly increased rates of police violence
An analysis of Mapping Police Violence data found that police violence in the U.S. tended to be slightly higher when average monthly temperatures exceeded 20.3°C (68.5°F). In areas with over 5 million people and in areas with less than 50mm of precipitation, each additional 1°C increase in the monthly average temperature above this threshold was associated with a roughly 2% increase in the rate of deaths caused by police violence. The paper was published in PLOS ONE.
Climate studies over the past few decades have indicated that our planet is rapidly warming. In 2024, global average surface temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record. These climate shifts have resulted in increasingly frequent periods of very hot daily temperatures.
In humans, exposure to high air temperatures—specifically temperatures above comfortable levels to which the body is adapted—produces physical discomfort, fatigue, and irritability. When people are overheated, they may find it harder to concentrate, make decisions, or control emotional reactions. Heat can also disturb sleep, and poor sleep can further worsen mood and self-control. Consequently, several studies suggest that very hot weather is associated with higher levels of aggression, conflict, and violence.
High temperatures may increase stress because the body has to work harder to regulate its internal temperature. As a result, people may become less patient and more likely to react impulsively in frustrating situations. Heat can also reduce productivity, especially in jobs that require physical effort or sustained attention. Vulnerable groups, such as older adults, children, and people with underlying health conditions, may be especially affected by extreme heat. In extreme cases, exposure to high air temperatures can even lead to death.
The results showed that police violence becomes more frequent when average monthly temperatures exceed 20.3°C or fall below −3.2°C. The increase in the frequency of police violence was more pronounced at increasingly higher temperatures than it was under very low temperatures.
In areas with over 5 million people, each additional 1°C increase in the monthly average temperature (above the 20.3°C threshold) was associated with a 2.01% increase in the rate of deaths caused by police violence. Meanwhile, in areas with less than 50mm of monthly precipitation, each additional 1°C rise in temperature was associated with a 2.06% increase in police-related deaths. The researchers also noted that the association between high temperatures and the risk of death caused by police violence was particularly notable in the year 2024.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0345523
All violence gets higher when temperatures elevate
Now overlay it with what crime does when it gets hot
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I grew up in an area that was 30-38C in the day and 28-30C at night for a couple of months. Back then air conditioning was rare and expensive.
Everyone is sleep deprived. You wander around at midnight as it is finally tolerable outside.
People do go a bit crazy. And crime goes up by 500%. As bored people wandering around at nigh make stupid decisions.
Hence, cop violence.
And to some extent police violence is greater in hotter places like, say, the south.
By this logic, wouldn’t PHX be like the #1 spot for police violence?
People get outdoors more when it’s warm and dry so it kind of follows you’d see more crime
Yes, a well-documented phenomenon. As seen in *Do The Right Thing*
Do the crime rates rise as well?
Hot time, Summer in the city…
That’s because violent crimes increase during hotter months. Even during temperature spikes. This is nothing new in the Criminal Justice realm.
So doesn’t that imply that police violence is often emotionally motivated?
We’re staying more hydrated with beer and other alcoholic beverages.
I believe when hot summers hit Chicago, the murder rates do tend to be much higher than during an average summer. So this study does track that same concept where heat makes people more temperamental
From a cold country that’s just warming up, it’s hard to understand being upset with hot weather
To quote a song: „We had three hot nights in succession, the riot season is here again..“
Another reason to take climate change seriously
What about the people they killed? Did their response to the police commands/requests remain the same?
Police are more active when people are more active? Fascinating.
People don’t want to be outside when cold. Even criminals aren’t as often outside breaking car windows for backpacks as often in the cold than warm days. Selection problem with this data.
Basically the background that the events in Do The Right Thing took place in
No kidding! Because criminals become more active and violent as the temps increase. The way the title is worked is insane.
Seemed very obvious in the ’60s and ’70s.
So Phoenix is fuuuuuucked
As someone that pored through literature on „protest science“ and „revolutions science“ (basically branch of political science that analyzes civil uprisings, protests, effective protests, crackdowns, revolutions), one of the things you learn about protests is that they often then to stall during the Winter and then pick back up in the Summer. This is because it is a lot easier to gather a bunch of people and build momentum when everyone is already keen to be outside than stuck indoors alongside holidays and breaks etc.
Police already know that hence why you’ll see arming up as „protests heat up“ in anticipation.
(Obviously many different factors involved including „are there mutual aid or political orgs or civic groups already setup“ since that is what helped greatly accelerate Minneapolis‘ civilian response to ICE’s occupation; but just „it is nice outside“ is a noted factor in when protests start up)
I wonder if the linked variable researchers are missing with their analysis through the https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/ database is that police violence escalates with protests?
I’ve seen better organizers actually know that police are often pretty violent to protestors and advise against them, and worse organizers invite police for „security“ and end up causing a police violence breakout.
I saw this Hey Arnold! episode.