Leger-Bundesumfrage: LPC 48, CPC 37, NDP 6, BQ 6
Federal Politics: Canadians Remain Satisfied as Liberals Hold Lead
Leger-Bundesumfrage: LPC 48, CPC 37, NDP 6, BQ 6
Federal Politics: Canadians Remain Satisfied as Liberals Hold Lead
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For reasons beyond my understanding they’ve chosen to compare the results to the ones from two polls before instead of the most recent one.
This poll differs a bit from the field but like all of the recent polls if an election were held today the result would be a strong Liberal majority. There is some softening of Liberal support overall though from the high water mark that was clearly not sustainable.
>Familiarity with the clause remains limited. Just under four in ten Canadians, 39%, say they are familiar with it, while 52% say they are not familiar and 9% say they have never heard of it before.
>When given a description of [the clause](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/charter-rights-freedoms-turns-44-9.7166036), Canadians are almost evenly split: 40% say they support it, while 39% oppose it. Another 21% are unsure.
>However, views shift when Canadians are asked about governments [using the clause preemptively](https://www.dentons.com/en/insights/newsletters/2026/january/14/global-regulatory-trends-to-watch/dentons-canadian-regulatory-trends-to-watch-in-2026/override-and-oversight#:~:text=Pre%2Demptive%20use%20of%20the,from%20Charter%2Dbased%20judicial%20review.), before a judicial ruling. In that case, opposition rises: 46% oppose preemptive use, while 31% support it and 23% are unsure.
For those who saw the Postmedia article about the notwithstanding clause yesterday, the article’s headline suggested Liberals were in support of the notwithstanding clause, but the numbers are much more nuanced than that. It’s pretty clear from the data that familiarity with the clause is low. Over 50% are not familiar with it. Only 8% were very familiar with the clause.
When informed about preemptive use of the clause a majority do not support its use. Support for preemptive use is highest in Quebec, but a substantial majority still oppose preemptive use. It’s important to note that nearly every use of the notwithstanding clause in the last several years has been preemptive (i.e., used before a judicial decision is given).
The poll does not indicate that people support every specific instance of its use. It means they can support the use of the clause. The reasons, including the judicial decision, are likely important into whether someone supports the use of the clause.
Other than the NWC, the poll doesn’t have a lot of information on other parties. There is no information on Poilievre’s or Lewis‘ approval. It’s not very informative on other parties than the Liberals.
Why is it no pollster can ever get BC right? Last month Leger had a Conservative lead there, now it shows a 20 point Liberal lead. Those type of swings simply don’t happen when the topline doesn’t change that much.
Regardless, Leger is known for their Quebec accuracy, and their Quebec numbers are quite interesting. The Conservatives seem to be in trouble in the province, which would like up with what we saw in Terrebonne, and would probably lose half their seats there.
Perhaps they’re just more closely aligning with Duhaime’s numbers, but losing QLP/CAQ supporters isn’t a very good trade.
If this keeps up for the Liberals 2025-2035 is very much going to be Carney’s decade.
37% is one of the better figures for the CPC recently, but they seem to be struggling to maintain it (usually fluctuating between the low to mid 30s). It’s impressive for how dysfunctional they are, but I think there’s around 30% of the population that will vote for the CPC no matter what,under any circumstance.
If the NDP gets less than 10% of the vote come election time (especially markedly less like in this poll, which is lower than Singh’s vote share in 2025), Lewis’s political career is most likely dead in the water.
The Avi “public option” Lewis hype train continues forward with full momentum. A roaring 6% in the polls building on his insurmountable lead.
I eagerly await the 6 articles later today which will elaborate in great detail how Avi will seize the means of production through popular revolution and lead the people’s republic of Canada.
Oh wow. Avi Lewis is doing a bang up job, isn’t he? Caucus is down to 5 and he’s made zero headway with the electorate.
Tell me again, progressives, why the woman candidate wasn’t qualified for the job she was elected to do?