Die Auswirkungen des Iran-Krieges haben gerade erst begonnen
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/the-iran-wars-ramifications-have-only-just-begun/687004/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
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Nancy A. Youssef and Jonathan Lemire: “Although none of the Trump administration’s goals—an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, destroying Iran’s missile capability, neutralizing proxy forces, regime change—has been fulfilled, the war has led to enduring changes. Two sweeping conclusions—one short-term, one longer—have become clear, experts in defense, diplomacy, business, and economics told us.
“Short-term, despite an indefinite cease-fire that kicked in last week following an initial two-week pause in hostilities, a durable end to the war isn’t coming anytime soon. The disparity in U.S. and Iranian demands for how negotiations should proceed along with blockades by their respective forces in the strait have locked the two sides in a stalemate. Many Americans still expect a quick end to the war’s economic strain. But that’s unlikely …
“Meanwhile, the economic geography of the Persian Gulf is likely changed forever. Iran now has greater authority over the strait than before the war began and stands to benefit from its closure …
“In response, energy companies and shippers are exploring alternatives that could involve billions of dollars in investment in new pipelines, port expansions, and alternative (though hardly fail-safe) routes through the Red Sea. Such a rewiring of global trade routes—akin to supply-chain changes made after the coronavirus pandemic—could ultimately render passage through the Strait of Hormuz unnecessary. But any such result is likely years away.
“In the meantime, the grip Iran has on the strait is expected to disrupt business, keep global energy and fertilizer prices elevated for years, exacerbate inflation—and make it much harder for Trump to claim a win in the war he started …
“The White House has heard from unhappy Gulf and European allies about the strait’s closure and the unwelcome prospect of future Iranian control. China, whose economy was already struggling, depends heavily on the strait and has urged its reopening. A senior White House official told us that Trump is concerned that the issue could complicate his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing in a little over two weeks. Yet there are no signs of a quick resolution.”
Read more: [https://theatln.tc/epOrW50j](https://theatln.tc/epOrW50j)
I don’t think I follow the logic on the long-term ramifications: that Iran has increased control over the Strait of Hormuz and that its closure benefits them.
Iran’s actual control certainly hasn’t increased and its probably even decreased as their navy and air force has been largely destroyed.
And in no way is closing the Strait a benefit to Iran. Iran is suffering far worse economic consequences than the rest of the world. Maybe one could argue it is a short term benefit at the negotiating table but Iran can’t sustain the closure indefinitely.
The actual „closure“ is more a factor of insurance costs and an unwillingness of countries besides the US to counter Iran. Iran only has the power to close the Strait because the rest of the world is letting them do it. For the time being, its cheaper to complain about the US and hope things go back to the way they were. Except I think that is a pipe dream, as failing to address Iran serves only to embolden them, which in turn facilitates the very illusion of control that the rest of the world already has deemed unnacceptable.
Trump is a man-child who knows nothing about how to handle this mess. But somehow he thinks he won it.