VAE verlässt OPEC und OPEC+ – ein schwerer Schlag für die globale Ölproduzentengruppe
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/uae-leaves-opec-opec-huge-122520070.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAE5s2Y1BzY-fC-78r3HM_XcpFcvRjpEwVZ7chvShnMHZof6FeDeoL3LqbBsVVbZfdYyx-EJgMn2vZ2HP5vjkdwD8Cjfs9hrQUjT5Ri8OoaV7BWnzmiGLM3hRpF58SWoTdQNU0Gkis-NdgQjZLhq9ENcwFx5m37oF70fxCrlmVi9v
16 Kommentare
United Arab Emirates just announced it’s leaving OPEC after more than 60 years as a member. This is a blow to Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC.
UAE blames the other gulf countries for not doing more to protect the UAE during the recent Iran war.
No need fo OPEC production quotas when Iran will put a Shahed quota.
It’s weird how this one cartel is considered a good thing.
Wait so I assume they want to ramp up oil supply?
There’s been a lot of scholarly research on the effects of OPEC quotas and IIRC most of it shows it has no effect or a negligible effect on price.
To be sure, a united OPEC could have massive affects on price – but it’s a very ineffective organization. It has no enforcement mechanisms to ensure members stick to quotas, and the incentives for member states are very different. Some countries have high production now but low reserves, some have low production but high reserves. Some need to maximize revenue now, others don’t. As well, since the US has massively increased oil production, limiting the supply brings a surge in US oil revenues (its not a net good for the US, but it’s better for the US than it is for the states doing it. Still a significant potential economic weapon though, just one where it’s very difficult to get all states to commit to using.).
This is significant, but more as a symbolic gesture of the UAE retreating from alignment with other OPEC states imo. (And to an extent by reducing the odds of effective OPEC shortages in the future.
Fanny fact that UAE main export oil terminal outside Strait of Hormuz. One can see some relation there 😄
If true that a huge blow to OPEC together with yet grows US oil production.
Seems like a concession to Iran.
Guess they like getting along with their neighbors. More importantly they don’t like their oil infrastructure destroyed
Good EU , OPEC ,NATO are nothing but thugs blackmailing every other country.
These scums are better dismantled.
KSA is in the process of being part of a defence pact with Pakistan, Turkiye and Egypt, with Chinese backing (and thus Iranian tolerance). That puts UAE on the other side with US and Israel. Bear in mind KSA and UAE are fighting a proxy war in Yemen. It does mean UAE are putting a LOT of faith in their existential survival on the famously loyal ally USA!
What may matter isn’t just whether UAE pumps more oil.
It may be that even imperfect OPEC coordination has acted as a shock absorber.
If part of that coordination starts fragmenting, the risk isn’t only supply shifts, but that volatility becomes harder to contain.
That makes this look less like an oil story and more like a governance signal.
OPEC is a Saudi controlled organization and it has been a source of a bottleneck for the UAE. This is a direct effect of the GCC and Arab League being weak in terms of their response to the Iranian attacks. Saudi Arabia benefits the most from OPEC while smaller countries like Qatar and UAE are bottlenecked by the quotas imposed by their neighbor. Qatar had already taken the 2017 diplomatic rupture as a prelude to exit it.
UAE has endured the brunt of the Iranian attacks, and Qatar lost major gas production capabilities. Bahrain and Kuwait are also not in a good shape. Iran has targeted these smaller countries particularly because their response and diplomatic outlash is not as effective and the damage can be severe.
This is technically UAE saying to Saudi Arabia and Russia, we have our own back and we do not need you to cap our capabilities specially when we are under attack. Since there is no GCC united front against Iran and no Russian leash on Iran, then we are on our own as well and will not follow your demands.
This is a massive news! Esp. For people like me from the region. This shows the silent rift between KSA and UAE is quickly turning into a gulf.
Pretty early to comment, but I don’t think other comments who are linking this with oil quotas, US pressure etc. are correct here. Traditionally UAE has been a highly diplomatic country – always working silently behind the scenes. They don’t like to show disunity publicly, esp with KSA. They had coordinated their actions in very much lock step – Yemen attacks or stabilizing oil prices post Covid with production cuts.
But more recently UAE seems to have broken ranks – first they publicly asked for more militaristic response to Iran, then shunned Pakistan for being too diplomatic (and not standing in their corner against Iran) and now left Opec.
What will happen to cartel – it already was difficult for KSA to control all members with production cuts with news that Iraq frequently surpassed its quotas. Now it will feel even more difficult to control the members. It can eventually lead to the cartel collapsing. Only time will tell, but surely this is a very significant geopolitical move by UAE, and completely out of its nature
This is good for Turmp and Israel
Bad for US in the long term and bad for the Gulf region as a whole
As soon as the War ends, with all the oil that the Gulf countries have and if UAE decides to increase production, the price will tank, hard
This is good for Trump that wants low gas price to gain popularity
Its bad for the US in the long term because most of their oil is shale oil and its more expensive to extract
Its good for Israel that wasnts the Gult to remain unstable so they can end as the regional power
Its bad for the Gulf States because they lose power
Interesting timing with the whole Strait of Hormuz situation feels like geopolitics is driving energy policy more than ever.
Has anyone seen if they are still selling exclusively in dollars? One of my worries of this war was the end of petrodollar.
Given the numerous previous rumours about capital flight and cash flow shortages in the UAE, this could be a forced shift under economic pressure. But will it immediately increase production, by how much, to whom, and how?
I wonder if they’re planning their own oil pipeline (with Oman) to bypass the Strait Of Hormuz…?