Das Chaos in der Straße von Hormus sei nur ein „Probelauf“ für den Fall, dass ein Krieg zwischen den USA und China ausbreche, sagt der Außenminister von Singapur

Today’s tumult in the Strait of Hormuz may be a dress rehearsal for tomorrow’s war in the Pacific, according to Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan.

The city-state considers both the United States and China as partners. U.S. entities make up the largest share of its largest foreign investments, with American multinational enterprises directly pouring $467.6 billion into the country in 2024. Not only that, the U.S. trade surplus with Singapore reached $3.6 billion last year, per U.S. Trade Representative data, a 91.5% increase from 2024’s $1.7 billion. At the same time, Singapore also reached its largest trade partnership with China, exporting $58.8 billion worth of goods there in 2023.

While the U.S. looks to extend a tenuous ceasefire as the war in Iran continues, China is maintaining a low profile, publicly as a peacekeeper. Despite this happening on the world stage, Balakrishnan said he doesn’t feel like Singapore has to pick between the two countries. However, should tensions between the U.S. and China escalate in a future conflict, Singapore may be placed in a challenging position to navigate its best interests while maintaining diplomacy with its two partners.

“Are we exquisitely positioned to take advantage of developments in both America and China? We are,” he said. “The main danger is: That relationship fractures if they go to war in the Pacific. What you’re witnessing now in the Strait of Hormuz is just a dry run.”

Read more: [https://fortune.com/2026/04/22/strait-of-hormuz-chaos-dry-run-us-china-conflict-pacific-singapore-foreign-minister-vivian-balakrishnan/](https://fortune.com/2026/04/22/strait-of-hormuz-chaos-dry-run-us-china-conflict-pacific-singapore-foreign-minister-vivian-balakrishnan/)

The thing troubling me the most about Trump’s actions (ok, that is a wild exaggeration), is the light-handedness that acts of wars like blockading other nations (Venezuela, Cuba, Iran) are started and conducted. The USA blockading (or threatening to blockade) international maritime waters. Surely someone in US administration understand what message it sends to PRC and ROC?

Add to that the fact USA manages to severely deplete its munitions stockpiles fighting Iran not too successfully.

Beijing’s takeover of Taiwan is now very likely to be very close. I just can’t see China not going for them now.

It is nothing like a fight over Taiwan. The straight of Hormuz is a tiny area comparatively. It is easy for a weak enemy to choke it off using asymmetric methods – mines, artillery fire, small boat swarms and UAV’s.

Taiwan will be a blue water fight. China’s most likely strategy is to impose a naval blockade rather than attempting a contested amphibous landing. China will have to surround Taiwan while facing both Taiwanese defences and the USN. Taiwanese subs and US SSNs will be rapidly attriting the PLAN. Land based and air launched anti ship weapons. The PLAN will suffer terrible losses trying to maintain a blockade.

I bet it’s for China to war game invading Taiwan no one is expecting the US to survive Trump

It’s also performing as intended, albeit with an additional quagmire of regime change. China will be feeling the brunt of the loss of cheap oil and helium between May and July, while American allies realign towards America supplies to makeup the shortfall. The pain of transition is the question that everyone is asking, and to what extent American allies will accept that pain.