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  1. (From the article): „Representative Eugene Vindman, a Virginia Democrat, launched a formal demand for Polymarket to turn over internal records, labeling well-timed bets on U.S. military operations as „traitorous“ and „vile.“

    The move follows reports of newly created accounts netting over $500,000 in profit by betting on sensitive geopolitical strikes just minutes before they were made public.

    “The use of sensitive or classified information to place bets on military actions endangers and undermines national security and risks the lives of our men and women in uniform,“ Vindman wrote in a letter to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan last week, calling the alleged use of insider knowledge “immoral, dishonest, vile, and traitorous.” He urged Polymarket to preserve and disclose all relevant records so Congress can determine whether government or military personnel exploited access to nonpublic information.

    Vindman, a retired U.S. Army Colonel, is demanding full disclosure of all records tied to bets on U.S. military actions after suspicious accounts reportedly made $400,000–$553,000 in profits by betting shortly before U.S. operations in Venezuela and Iran.

    Vindman said these are not isolated incidents, and the pattern raises the possibility that government officials, military personnel, or individuals with access to classified information may be trading on Polymarket. His concerns echo broader warnings in Congress. Lawmakers have already raised alarms about well‑timed bets on the war, including at least 50 brand‑new accounts that wagered on a U.S.–Iran ceasefire minutes before Trump announced it.

    The congressman argues such activity threatens the integrity of U.S. operations, undermines public trust, and could incentivize the misuse of classified information for personal gain. He has urged Polymarket to preserve all relevant records so Congress can determine whether criminal or regulatory action is warranted. „Profiting off sensitive national security information is dangerous and unacceptable—but traders are making millions doing exactly that,“ he wrote on X on Sunday afternoon. I’m calling on Polymarket CEO Shayne Caplan to hand over records of these bets to Congress. We need answers. Anyone endangering our national security and our troops to profit off it must be held accountable.“

    Representative Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, has separately asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate whether Polymarket traders had access to material nonpublic information. “Recent reporting reveals that a group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed highly specific, well-timed bets that the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, despite a lack of public indicators suggesting such an outcome,“ Torres wrote in his April 9 letter. „These accounts, many of which were created shortly before the announcement, generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits within hours.“

    The commission is an independent U.S. government agency established in 1974 that regulates derivatives markets, including futures, swaps, and certain options. Its mission is to ensure market integrity, prevent fraud and manipulation, and protect market participants. After separate legislation was introduced aiming to curb sports-related contracts, Polymarket and its more-tightly regulated rival, Kalshi, last month announced their own set of guardrails to clamp down on “insider trading and market manipulation.”“

  2. spicy_valentine on

    This is exactly why prediction markets are a double-edged sword. Betting on actual military outcomes while people are on the ground feels incredibly greasy.

  3. „We got all the info from this Signal group Hegseth was running. Why don’t you send him a subpoena?“ – Expected response, probably

  4. thatnameagain on

    Extremely irresponsible to throw around the word “traitorous” like republicans do, but there still should be an investigation.

  5. I don’t understand how any country could sanction any system where people can gamble on humans living or dying (air strikes, troop deployment, etc). This is literally what is depicted in the Hunger Games, the only difference is scale, and this is actually worse.

    Are other countries going to start using the market as a system to forewarn them of danger, or to shore up their defenses in certain spaces. Nothing good can come of this.

  6. WhoIsFrancisPuziene on

    One would think that the overarching issue is that Trump’s son is involved with both Polymarket and Kalshi…

  7. IrishPorpoise on

    I am sure the prediction markets are shaking in their boots from the failed impeachment guy making noise about their business.

  8. TrifectaBlitz on

    Hell yeah!. Isn’t he also going for Senate in Virginia?

    This !@#$% pisses me off so much. No honor. No allegiance except to money. Such market manipulation.

  9. ONE-EYE-OPTIC on

    Is there a prediction I can make on the outcome of this strongly worded letter?

  10. PDXGuy33333 on

    The 50 new accounts that best on the Iran ceasefire are probably all Trump’s.

  11. ClasslessHero on

    Shayne is an insane CEO. He genuinely believes that there is no insider trading on his platform because *something something blockchain.* He said this at the Sloan Sports Analytics conference. Just jesus fucking christ.

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