Händler platzierten über 1 Milliarde US-Dollar in perfekt getimten Wetten auf den Iran-Krieg. Was ist los?

Sixteen bets made $100,000 accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February. Later, a single user would make over $550,000 after betting that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would topple, just moments before his assassination by Israeli forces. On 7 April, right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down. They did.

These bets and other well-timed wagers accurately predicted the precise timing of major developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers and experts over potential insider trading.

Betting – once largely siloed to sporting events – has now spread to include contracts on news events where insider information could give some traders an advantage.

The proliferation of online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has allowed bets on virtually any news event. It’s also easier than ever to buy commodity derivatives like oil futures, where traders gamble on what the price of oil will be in the future

Leaders of some US federal agencies and some members of Congress said they want to crack down on suspicious trading taking place across different marketplaces, but it’s unclear how much leeway regulators will make.

“Is the problem that we don’t have legislation or that we don’t have enforcement capabilities?” said Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University. “To have a law that can’t really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it’s sort of putting the cart before the horse.”

Perfect timing

On the night of 27 February, the day before the US and Israel would carry out strikes on Iran, an unusual influx of about 150 accounts on Polymarket placed bets that the US would strike Iran the next day. A New York Times analysis found the bets totaled $855,000, with 16 accounts pocketing more than $100,000 each.

Soon after, a single anonymous Polymarket user, under an account named “Magamyman”, made over $553,000 after betting that Khamenei would be “removed” from power just moments before he was killed by an Israeli airstrike, according to a complaint filed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that regulates futures markets, by Public Citizen, a consumer advocacy group. The complaint also cites a crypto-analytics firm that identified six “suspected insiders” who made a total of $1.2m on Polymarket after Khamenei was killed.

The well-timed surge of wagers were seen again on 7 April, when at least 50 Polymarket accounts placed bets that the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire hours before Trump would announce it on a Truth Social post. Earlier, the president had said “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not open the strait of Hormuz.

But traders weren’t just active on Polymarket: there were similar surges of oil futures trading activity just hours before Trump announced updates to the conflict that would lower oil prices.

At some point, isn’t this a problem for whoever keeps making the other side of the bets? Like here’s a tip, don’t offer bets on things Trump’s family has insider information on.

>Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

The answer is corruption. Corruption on a level never seen before in the US government. From the highest levels.

I mean… it’s pretty fucking obvious what’s going on

The very insider trading that put Martha behind bars.

Fraud and corruption.

You know what’s going on. Everyone knows what’s going on.

Some guy wants to tell me we’re living in a community? Don’t make me laugh.

I’m living in America, and in America, you’re on your own.

America’s not a country, it’s just a business.

brad pitt knows, why hardly anyone else?

[https://youtu.be/5zK-b0INu1k](https://youtu.be/5zK-b0INu1k)

Well..defrauding investors has kind of been the MO of the so called ‚business class‘ from time immemorial. Now they’ve just gone a bit more wild west than normal, cause they know they can easily buy their out, if push comes to shove. Sure, there’s also the gutting of the SEC and all regulatory institutions in general, but it still boils down to my initial point.

Things are going to go south once open war starts. Powehouses are carb loading with insider trading till then. Besides, how can a good business person not capitalize on the see saw of Hormuz diplomacy while there is a loud mouth in the White House.

Oh that? Thats insider trading. Thats a direct link to a corrupt group of politicians who built their entire career and administration off of scamming people to make their fortune. So, just the same thing that has been going on for a long time.

Capitalism is all about creating profit, not building durable, equitable economies. We’ve now hit the point in capitalism where the fastest, best route to profit is speculation, or in human languages: Gambling.

We’ve now hit the stage of capitalism where the finance industry has realized that it’s faster & easier to gamble than to build anything. The *late-stage*, you might say.

I have a better question, why the fuck are people allowed to bet on anything like this in the first place? Just stop all of it, there shouldn’t be any monetary gain swaying these decisions one way or another.

Perhaps some are waking up to our living in a criminal enterprise.

Avoiding prison, corruption, and white supremacy. The only three goals of this regime.

Insider’s Trading with no repercussions. Trump’s America.