Die Blockade von Hormuz mit hohem Risiko und geringer Belohnung
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/04/iran-blockade-advantage/686812/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
Die Blockade von Hormuz mit hohem Risiko und geringer Belohnung
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/04/iran-blockade-advantage/686812/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
4 Kommentare
Brynn Tannehill: “The Trump administration’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has made the waterway one more testing ground in a battle of wills. The question isn’t whether Iran or the United States has the more powerful navy, but which country can endure economic pain and military casualties longer—the United States, which has been waging an unpopular war of choice in the Middle East, or the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is fighting for its survival …
“Enforcing the blockade could be complicated and risky for the United States diplomatically. The U.S. may have to decide, for instance, whether it will detain a Chinese-flagged vessel, or even one escorted by the Chinese, Pakistani, or Indian navies. If the United States were to board such a ship, the Chinese or other powers could retaliate economically, including through tariffs or by stepping up military or economic assistance to Iran.
“Enforcement could also put American service members at risk. Visit, board, search, and seizure (VBSS) teams are tasked with inspecting vessels … Vessels being boarded are supposed to come to a complete stop. But some ships attempting to run the blockade might refuse to be boarded and instead continue speeding ahead. The U.S. Navy would then have to decide whether to board the ship without the crew’s cooperation, which requires special training, or to disable the vessel by firing on it.
“Other vessels might attempt to avoid capture by staying close to Iranian waters, which would expose the destroyers, and especially the VBSS small-boat teams, to enemy fire …
“The American public was never sold on the war with Iran, and Trump’s popularity has taken a hit in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms. How the blockade ends may depend on just how many casualties and how much economic pain each country and its leaders can endure. The advantage in this contest belongs to Iran—because it is not a democracy, because it is fighting near its own territory, and because its regime will do anything necessary to survive.”
Read more: [https://theatln.tc/4UakFZ5o](https://theatln.tc/4UakFZ5o)
Fyi trump might have already “reopened” the strait couple hours ago. I guess the rich starry boat going back and forth was actually trolling the us military earlier
The risk reward of this entire endeavour made no sense for any country from a geopolitical perspective except for Israel.
TLDR: Author puts thought into how a blockade works for the first time in his life.
> The question isn’t whether Iran or the United States has the more powerful navy, but which country can endure economic pain and military casualties longer—the United States, which has been waging an unpopular war of choice in the Middle East, or the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is fighting for its survival
This is a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. The US is facing higher gas prices (still below the peak of 2022) – but US oil exports have hit a record high., with the end result being, in relative terms, very mild economic pain. Iran is facing the complete loss of revenues and inability to make payroll. Just a couple of days ago, the President of Iran was reported as saying “[w]e are weeks away from collapse. They are cutting off our main source of income – I don’t know how we will pay salaries.”
> “Enforcement could also put American service members at risk. Visit, board, search, and seizure (VBSS) teams are tasked with inspecting vessels … Vessels being boarded are supposed to come to a complete stop. But some ships attempting to run the blockade might refuse to be boarded and instead continue speeding ahead. The U.S. Navy would then have to decide whether to board the ship without the crew’s cooperation, which requires special training, or to disable the vessel by firing on it.
> “Other vessels might attempt to avoid capture by staying close to Iranian waters, which would expose the destroyers, and especially the VBSS small-boat teams, to enemy fire
That’s called a blockade. That’s what it entails.
ETA: US oil exports have spiked to ~$12 billion/week in March.