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    1. sudanwarmonitor on

      Famine Early Warning Systems Network, a U.S.-based monitoring group, warned last month that “the conflict in the Middle East is destabilizing the humanitarian supply pipeline and disrupting fertilizer access” in Sudan. This dynamic means that, even if Sudan escapes famine in 2026, it may suffer declining agricultural output that would affect food security in 2027 and beyond. A global recession that impacts Sudan’s exports, such as livestock, gum arabic, gold, and crude oil, would also impact livelihoods and push more Sudanese into poverty and, potentially, malnutrition.

    2. Getting in to the weeds a bit here but the IPC classified two areas in Sudan as undergoing famine in the Fall. However, this didn’t make as big of an impact as IPC classifications normally would.

      The entire point of the IPC was to have a neutral agency designating famine based off strict criteria so it wouldn’t become political. One requirement is data showing at least 2 people per 10,000 are starving or dying from malnutrition every day.

      The IPC threw that out the window two years ago to declare Gaza city in famine despite the data on CDR not being anywhere close to the threshold. (I believe at that point the Gaza MoH data claimed ~30 starvation deaths for a 2 million pop over 2 years.)

      The IPC report essentially said ‘we don’t have any evidence or data on it but we assume it’s happening”.

      That became the new standard. The IPC can just declare a famine without having any data that meets the criteria, if the analysts believe there to be a famine. This is the same method used to declare famines in Sudan.

      And there very well may be! Researchers not having good mortality data does not mean no famine is happening! It’s just that the IPC classification is now essentially “this group of people say so” rather than “data proves this is a famine”.

      Maybe it drives more aid to areas that otherwise would miss out, but I feel like this change may have just degraded states trust in the IPC.

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