Der Iran hat gewonnen. Fast alle anderen haben verloren

>**Loser – The Gulf states**: These six countries, the largest of which is Saudi Arabia, enjoy a prosperity that rests on regional peace and freedom of navigation. That’s why they counselled Mr. Trump against starting the war.

>However, once the U.S. and Israel attacked, and Iran responded by stopping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while at the same time launching waves of missile and drone attacks against the Gulf states, several governments urged the U.S. against ending the offensive with Iran still on the front foot.

>**Loser – The U.S.**: The American military has blown up a lot of stuff in Iran. But listing off targets hit and leaders killed echoes the Pentagon’s failed focus on “body count” during the Vietnam War.

>This absence of strategy has led to a strategic defeat.

>As of Thursday evening, the U.S. stopped its attacks against Iran and imposed the same behaviour on Israel; meanwhile, Iran continued its economic war by keeping the strait largely closed. Tehran also announced plans to levy tolls in what was, prior to Feb. 28, an open international waterway. And it demanded that the U.S. force Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah.

>Mr. Trump went to war boasting about limitless U.S. power, demanding unconditional surrender and promising regime change. Quick and easy victory having eluded him, he has pivoted. He is now bidding to end the war on terms that would make Neville Chamberlain blush.

>**Loser – Israel**: Iran was a friend of Israel prior to the 1979 Iranian Revolution. That’s why the overthrow or moderation of a Tehran regime obsessed with Israel’s annihilation is a long-standing Israeli goal.

>But instead of regime change, the war has delivered an Iranian regime radicalized by its survival, and empowered by its success.

>**Loser – Lebanon**: The country has been decimated by Israeli attacks on Hezbollah. But Hezbollah, a terrorist state-within-a-state that is not supported by most Lebanese, endures. Lebanon is suffering all the side-effects of chemotherapy with none of the benefits.

>**Winner – Islamic Republic of Iran**: It demonstrated that, through geography and asymmetric weapons, it can make its neighbours and their superpower protector cry uncle.

>Tehran has gone from deterred and cowed during last year’s one-sided Israeli-American bombing campaign to empowered and emboldened.

>A dangerous offender previously under long-term supervision has discovered its get-out-of-jail card.

>**Loser – Iranians**: The men running the Islamic Republic are emboldened; the people of Iran are in for greater repression.

>**Winner – China**: American failure opens the door to Beijing. Unlike the U.S., China has good relations with the countries on both side of the Persian Gulf. Unlike the U.S., it is also a major customer for Iranian oil. That’s why China was the logical broker for a 2023 deal that renewed relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Is the conflict even done?

russia and china had their good time during this conflict

Iran won in China and Russia and maybe the EU…. Only because they executed most opposition inside their own country.

I get that Canadians are pretty unhappy with Trump right now. But every commentary loudly proclaiming the triumph of Iran and the loss of the US is getting old.