Was China gerade aus dem Iran-Krieg gelernt hat
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/china-taiwan-trump-iran-war/686738/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
Was China gerade aus dem Iran-Krieg gelernt hat
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/china-taiwan-trump-iran-war/686738/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
7 Kommentare
Simon Shuster: “China stands to learn a lot from the war in Iran. Red lines and deadlines imposed by the United States, even when backed by the threat of genocide, can turn out to be rather wobbly. The American military, despite its unrivaled power, has trouble swatting down swarms of cheap drones. But the most valuable lesson, at least for China’s ambitions to seize Taiwan, has more to do with the way the world’s supply chains, energy prices, and stock markets influence the U.S. willingness to fight.
“It remains unclear what exactly led President Trump to step back from his ultimatum Tuesday that he would destroy Iran’s civilization without major concessions, agreeing hours later to a two-week cease-fire and settlement talks even though Iran didn’t appear to have given up significant ground. But the Iranian choke hold on the Strait of Hormuz evidently had a lot to do with it. By cutting off roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply over the past five weeks, Iran’s blockade of that narrow waterway caused an energy crisis and fears of a global recession that the White House could not abide for long.
“China will have paid close attention to Trump’s pain threshold. Although Beijing has numerous options for conquering Taiwan, the most appealing for the Chinese military would begin with a partial blockade of the island, much like the one Iran imposed on the strait. The resulting shock to the global economy would be far worse. Factories in Taiwan produce more than a third of the world’s microchips. Without them, manufacturers would be forced to halt production of computers, cars, smartphones, home appliances, and countless other goods. Building the data centers that power artificial intelligence—the engine of American economic growth—would be impossible without the advanced chips Taiwan produces.”
Read more: [https://theatln.tc/wquBc9Ay](https://theatln.tc/wquBc9Ay)
I’d say a bigger takeaway than any of that is that the West simply doesn’t have the will to win, especially with a fight that’s far from home. 3 weeks and people were freaking out as to why the war isn’t over. If you have the commitment you can simply outlast the public will of both the US and Europe even if their militaries are vastly superior.
Many of the rare earth metals for missiles are controlled by China.
Now, Xi isn’t Atlee that gave away the jet engine as some sort of CBM to the Soviets after world war 2.
Does this logic work? The US doesn’t exactly depend on the Straight, and while it raises their oil prices some, it is hardly devastating to the US economy. A lot of other countries sure, but not the US. While a blockade of Taiwan would be an immense threat to the US economy. So it really seems like this author is comparing apples and oranges.
I think the biggest learning at least for me is there is a limit to which what military power can achieve, especially against geography.
Begs the question, how many drones can China make ?
China learned that US air power, even from just a single air craft carrier, is hard to deal with and that drones are part of future warfare.
Nothing really new.
Oh they DID learn the US can land 200 spec ops guys just 30 miles outside of a heavily fortified area, operate for 12 hours, and still get out.