Medián has compiled a seat projection based on its five most recent representative surveys. However, the polling firm emphasized that this is, in fact, an estimate, so “probable values can only be determined responsibly within a certain range.”
According to the estimate, Tisza can expect 138–143 seats, which projects a clear two-thirds majority, while Fidesz can expect 49–55 seats. According to Medián, Mi Hazánk is likely to enter parliament, with a chance of winning 5 or 6 seats.
Based on an analysis of data from five previous representative surveys, Medián also examined the level of support for the parties among different social groups and how party preferences have changed since the 2022 election.
Fidesz has lost a quarter of its 2022 voter base, but the attrition of former government supporters has remained significant even since the EP election. Age continues to be the primary factor determining party choice, followed by education level, while the influence of place of residence is diminishing.
Medián conducted five representative telephone surveys in the last week of February and in March, using three different call centers, with a total sample size of 5,000 respondents. Due to the nature of the commission, some of these results have not yet been made public; however, the aggregated database now allows for a more reliable analysis of certain correlations than is typically possible.
poklane on
Orban’s meltdown if this were to happen would be glorious.
|Tisza|Fidesz|Mi Hazánk|National Roma minority|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|138-143 (141)|49-55 (52)|5-6 (5)|0-1 (1)|
133 seats are needed for 2/3 supermajority. 100 seats for simple majority. In total there are 199 seats.
Wyciorek on
Well, well, with clear 2/3 majority Tisza should be able to dismantle any roadblocks that Fidesz can set up in anticipation of losing.
Brennenstein on
In before Orbán calls this election interference.
NonSekTur on
Boa sorte húngaros!
(from Brazil)
Opening-Border-6313 on
I cannot belive this but if its true, than… I am going to cry and be drunk for a week
berejser on
Huge if true. Tiza is only going to have a few years to try and Orban-proof the country to make sure history can never repeat, and a supermajority would make that job so much easier.
Dhghomon on
Would be a mouse-sized result for Fidesz in the national assembly for sure.
MenitoBussolini on
Almost at the finishing line, Hungary – final stretch. Kick Orbán’s, Trump’s, Vance’s and Putin’s ass. It will be glorious. Love from Portugal. *Közel a győzelem.*
Doomwaffel on
A quick read up – from what I could gather: (correct me if I am wrong)
The Tisza party is more or less a middle-right party and agrees in parts with Orban.
Compared to him they are a lot more friendly towards the EU and against corruption.
They keep the right wing stance on immigration as well as on no-weapons for Ukraine.
Having a Hungary that actually wants to work with the EU would be a big step forward for the EU overall.
Nagash24 on
Call me a doomer but I’ve SO had it with Orban, so… any projection is wishful thinking. I won’t get my hopes up until the election is over, someone else becomes prime minister in Hungary, AND the relations with the EU improve.
Doctor-lasanga on
The polling is looking good but i will only trust the final result. May the lord protect me from all temptations.
Pulikugyus on
For reference: Medián predicted 128 for Fidesz and 71 for the United Opposition just before election day in 2022. Fidesz got 135. Medián’s prediction was the closest, even the government-friendly pollsters gave less for Fidesz
secretqwerty10 on
if orban loses and refuses to leave, will trump bomb hungary and kidnap him just like he did with maduro?
of course not, orban is also putin’s lap dog!
oh-delay on
Don’t celebrate before the work is done. Polls have been wildly wrong in the past, and belief in the certainty of a particular outcome will cause the spread of voter apathy.
temotodochi on
We’ll see, because news like these are also used to make opposition supporters lazier on voting day (safe lead fallacy).
spiringTankmonger on
Everything short of that would make Hungary ungovernable.
But Fidez has the whole illiberal world, and over a decade of entrenched corruption, so it’s doubtful they’ll win the election.
oritfx on
May Hungary to being known for the best salami and sausages in the area instead of the current thing. It’s a much older and yet a better look.
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Medián has compiled a seat projection based on its five most recent representative surveys. However, the polling firm emphasized that this is, in fact, an estimate, so “probable values can only be determined responsibly within a certain range.”
According to the estimate, Tisza can expect 138–143 seats, which projects a clear two-thirds majority, while Fidesz can expect 49–55 seats. According to Medián, Mi Hazánk is likely to enter parliament, with a chance of winning 5 or 6 seats.
Based on an analysis of data from five previous representative surveys, Medián also examined the level of support for the parties among different social groups and how party preferences have changed since the 2022 election.
Fidesz has lost a quarter of its 2022 voter base, but the attrition of former government supporters has remained significant even since the EP election. Age continues to be the primary factor determining party choice, followed by education level, while the influence of place of residence is diminishing.
Medián conducted five representative telephone surveys in the last week of February and in March, using three different call centers, with a total sample size of 5,000 respondents. Due to the nature of the commission, some of these results have not yet been made public; however, the aggregated database now allows for a more reliable analysis of certain correlations than is typically possible.
Orban’s meltdown if this were to happen would be glorious.
Total population:
|Tisza|Fidesz|Other parties/didn’t answer/doesn’t know|
|:-|:-|:-|
|48%|30%|22%|
Seat projection:
|Tisza|Fidesz|Mi Hazánk|National Roma minority|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|138-143 (141)|49-55 (52)|5-6 (5)|0-1 (1)|
133 seats are needed for 2/3 supermajority. 100 seats for simple majority. In total there are 199 seats.
Well, well, with clear 2/3 majority Tisza should be able to dismantle any roadblocks that Fidesz can set up in anticipation of losing.
In before Orbán calls this election interference.
Boa sorte húngaros!
(from Brazil)
I cannot belive this but if its true, than… I am going to cry and be drunk for a week
Huge if true. Tiza is only going to have a few years to try and Orban-proof the country to make sure history can never repeat, and a supermajority would make that job so much easier.
Would be a mouse-sized result for Fidesz in the national assembly for sure.
Almost at the finishing line, Hungary – final stretch. Kick Orbán’s, Trump’s, Vance’s and Putin’s ass. It will be glorious. Love from Portugal. *Közel a győzelem.*
A quick read up – from what I could gather: (correct me if I am wrong)
The Tisza party is more or less a middle-right party and agrees in parts with Orban.
Compared to him they are a lot more friendly towards the EU and against corruption.
They keep the right wing stance on immigration as well as on no-weapons for Ukraine.
Having a Hungary that actually wants to work with the EU would be a big step forward for the EU overall.
Call me a doomer but I’ve SO had it with Orban, so… any projection is wishful thinking. I won’t get my hopes up until the election is over, someone else becomes prime minister in Hungary, AND the relations with the EU improve.
The polling is looking good but i will only trust the final result. May the lord protect me from all temptations.
For reference: Medián predicted 128 for Fidesz and 71 for the United Opposition just before election day in 2022. Fidesz got 135. Medián’s prediction was the closest, even the government-friendly pollsters gave less for Fidesz
if orban loses and refuses to leave, will trump bomb hungary and kidnap him just like he did with maduro?
of course not, orban is also putin’s lap dog!
Don’t celebrate before the work is done. Polls have been wildly wrong in the past, and belief in the certainty of a particular outcome will cause the spread of voter apathy.
We’ll see, because news like these are also used to make opposition supporters lazier on voting day (safe lead fallacy).
Everything short of that would make Hungary ungovernable.
But Fidez has the whole illiberal world, and over a decade of entrenched corruption, so it’s doubtful they’ll win the election.
May Hungary to being known for the best salami and sausages in the area instead of the current thing. It’s a much older and yet a better look.