Ein großer Teil des iranischen Militärs mag „dezimiert“ sein, aber das Land gewinnt den Energiekrieg, indem es entscheidet, wer seine Ladungen durch die Straße von Hormus transportiert

The U.S. may continue to “obliterate” Iran militarily over the coming weeks—as President Trump repeatedly threatens—but Iran’s likelihood of maintaining some control over energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint increases daily and could ultimately equate to a “major victory” in the war.

That potential win for Iran, and for its allies Russia and China, would result in higher oil and gas prices—and greater inflation—longer term, leaving the world notably worse off than before the U.S. and Israel initiated the war, energy and geopolitical experts told Fortune.

“Seizing the strait and controlling traffic through it—even if that control is imperfect—is a major victory for a regime that has no other successes to celebrate besides survival,” said Matt Reed, vice president of geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports. “Iran is confident that it will exert some control, and it will insist on collecting tolls to legitimize its role and pay for post-war reconstruction.”

Read more: [https://fortune.com/2026/04/04/iran-winning-energy-war-cargoes-strait-of-hormuz/?showAdminBar=true](https://fortune.com/2026/04/04/iran-winning-energy-war-cargoes-strait-of-hormuz/?showAdminBar=true)