Selbst wenn das iranische Regime Trump überdauert, wird es den Wiederaufbau der zerstörten Wirtschaft möglicherweise nicht überleben, sagt ein Nahost-Experte
https://fortune.com/2026/04/05/iran-economy-postwar-reconstruction-regime-survival-sanctions-relief-irgc/
9 Kommentare
Tehran has been embolden by its ability to maintain tight control over the Strait of Hormuz and its own population. But even if the regime survives the war against the U.S. and Israel, its biggest challenge may come afterward.
For now, there’s little sign of de-escalation as President Donald Trump has vowed to obliterate Iran’s economy if Tehran doesn’t reopen the strait in the next few days, while the Islamic republic continues bombarding its Persian Gulf neighbors.
Both sides are already targeting civilian and energy infrastructure, boosting postwar rebuilding costs everyday. But while the Gulf states boasted thriving business sectors before the conflict, Iran’s economy was already in shambles, leading to domestic unrest that prompted a brutal crackdown.
Read more: [https://fortune.com/2026/04/05/iran-economy-postwar-reconstruction-regime-survival-sanctions-relief-irgc/](https://fortune.com/2026/04/05/iran-economy-postwar-reconstruction-regime-survival-sanctions-relief-irgc/)
Not if they control the strait. That is a huge boost to the economy
That does not matter , when the rest of the world is collapsing, even the US will take a hit except Trump’s friends that are making a killing in oil and on the stock market.
It took Assad’s regime nearly a decade to be toppled. For a long time, he was able to coast by with support from ethnic and religious minorities and military control within Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, etc.
Unlike Assad’s regime after the Arab Spring, the IRGC and Artesh have yet to experience any mass defections. The regime’s structure is additionally decentralized across Iran’s 31 Provinces. It is important to remember that Syria had experienced massive uprisings in Hama in the 1980s which was comparable to what happened recently in Iran. Even then, it took decades for momentum to foment.
I think Iranian leadership is now in BB’s situation. The second the war ends their hold on power begins to degrade again. Both sides of the main conflict (Israel and Iran) actually have incentives to prolong the war as long as possible. Its the US that is absolutely desperate to end the war and open the strait.
Fair. But what if they bring everyone down with them in the area? The rebuilding will not only be in Iran.
Not biting. It’s existential for the Iranians, they don’t want to be Gaza. Sanctions will end as part of a deal, else no open Strait. Ground invasion suicidal.
So many people are assuming that all Iran has to do is survive until the US and Israel stop attacking. In reality, that’s when many of the biggest problems begin for Iran’s government.
The Iranian regime is somewhat well prepared for an aerial assault. It is wholly unprepared, nor is it equipped for a full scale reconstruction afterwards.
The opposite. If you study physchology then you know that when an invader invades, it causes the population to be pro government. Second a baby boom typically happens post war and Iran will collect 60 billion per year from tolls from strait of hormuz.